Dodgers Flagged as MLB Playoff Panel's Riskiest Contender

The Guardian's playoff panel put the Dodgers on notice this week, arguing that a run of good fortune is about to run out.

The Mariners top the list of teams left out. Seattle came within one win of the World Series last October and looked ready to go further this year. Instead the club finished 76-86, a lineup built around Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena sitting out October again. The franchise remains the only one of the 30 to have never reached a World Series.

Pittsburgh is the second team named. A healthy Konnor Griffin at shortstop and Paul Skenes on the mound could have given the postseason some life, but the Pirates dug too deep a hole in August and never recovered.

Baltimore rounds out that group, and the season without the Orioles also closes the book on Pete Alonso's audition for a new contract. Alonso hit 43 home runs this year, arguably the second-best season of his career, and the Mets' president of baseball operations, David Stearns, never made him an offer. Stearns is off the hook for now, with the question due back in 2027.

On the other side of the bracket, the panel flagged two high seeds at risk of an early exit. Cleveland won the American League's No. 2 seed with 85 wins and a plus-11 run differential, but FanGraphs' model reads the Guardians as closer to a.500 club. The pitching can win close games, but a lineup without a single 20-homer hitter leaves no margin for error.

The Dodgers drew the sharpest warning. Los Angeles has no obvious weakness, but the roster carries an average age of 31, the oldest in MLB, after two straight postseasons that added 31 extra games to the players' workload. One writer on the panel called it the year age, variance and accumulated wear finally catch up with them.

If that reading holds, the Guardians and the Dodgers would both be out well before the World Series, and a Mets front office that let Alonso walk would spend the winter answering for it.