Yankees vs Mets: match prediction on 12 September 2026

The Yankees are favourites for this game. They have won four of their last five matches, including three straight at home, while the model expects them to score 4.9 runs compared to the Mets' 3.6. The Yankees' recent home form is the strongest single factor pointing to a victory.

The Yankees have played three home games in a row against the Rockies, winning 10–3, 6:1 and 5:3. They scored 21 runs in those three matches and conceded just 7. Away from home they have mixed results — a 5:1 win and a 3:4 loss against the Padres in their last two outings.

The Mets have won four of five, but their matches have been unpredictable. They played three games against the Marlins away, winning 15:14, 7:5 and 9:4. Those three games produced 31 runs for and 23 against. The 15:14 result shows they can score freely but also concede heavily. They lost 5:9 at home to the Giants in their previous match.

The model projects 4.9 runs for the Yankees and 3.6 for the Mets. The combined projection of 8.5 runs matches their recent output. The Yankees' expected output is higher, reflecting their home form and the Mets' defensive vulnerabilities shown in the Marlins series.

The Yankees' confidence comes from their home record — without that advantage, the prediction weakens. If either side drops off their recent average, the prediction shifts.

Confidence: 65%