Alba Fehérvár vs Kormend Egis: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Alba Fehérvár to win, confidence 64%. The model expects the home side to score 101.7 points against Kormend Egis's 89.3, and the service pick backs that expectation. Alba have won four of six recent meetings between these sides, while Kormend have taken two. The gap in expected scoring — 12.4 points — is wide enough to suggest a comfortable margin rather than a tight finish.

Alba Fehérvár's recent form shows three wins and two losses across five matches, accumulating nine points. Their last outing ended in a 90:98 home defeat to Budapesti Honved Se on 15.05.2026, but before that they won two of three, including a 101:79 home victory over the same opponents. Kormend Egis sit on six points from five games, with two wins and three losses. They won their last two matches at home — 118:98 against NKA Pécs and 101:99 versus Zalakeramia — but lost all three away trips, including an 87:123 defeat to OSE Lions on 13.05.2026. The pattern suggests Kormend struggle on the road while Alba remain competitive at home.

The head-to-head record from the gathered data shows Alba Fehérvár with four victories and Kormend Egis with two across six meetings. The most recent encounter on 06.03.2026 ended 94:96 to Kormend Egis, but Alba have dominated the series overall, including a 114:86 win on 01.10.2024 and a 92:67 result on 04.11.2023. Two of Kormend's wins came at their own ground — 108:96 on 08.11.2025 and 103:98 on 03.02.2024 — while both losses came away from home. The home advantage for Alba carries weight given this split.

The model's expected points figure for Alba Fehérvár stands at 101.7, while Kormend Egis are projected at 89.3. That difference of 12.4 points aligns with the service pick's confidence level of 64%. The probability of a draw sits at 0%, and both teams scoring — or in basketball terms, both reaching their expected output — is also listed at 0%. These figures suggest a clear separation rather than a close contest. Alba's recent scoring average across five matches totals 457 points, averaging 91.4 per game, while Kormend have managed 465 points in five outings, averaging 93.0. The model adjusts these baselines upward for Alba and downward for Kormend.

A draw would suit Kormend Egis given their tendency to run the clock down away from home, and that scenario is the main threat to the prediction. The prediction also fails if Alba lose their starting centre or primary ball-handler — no team news is available, but such an absence would shift the estimate.