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BC Neptūnas vs Juventus Utena: match prediction on 23 September 2026
BC Neptūnas
Juventus Utena
Prediction for
Win: BC Neptūnas
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
58%
1
42%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 16:43- Нептунас, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Ювентус Утена, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 24 games, Нептунас — 12, Ювентус Утена — 12
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
BC Neptūnas
LWWLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Juventus Utena
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 32
12BC Neptūnas
0Draw
20Juventus Utena
- 3 JunJuventus Utena — BC Neptūnas103:90
- 1 JunBC Neptūnas — Juventus Utena102:84
- 29 MayJuventus Utena — BC Neptūnas86:83
- 27 MayBC Neptūnas — Juventus Utena83:96
- 2 MayJuventus Utena — BC Neptūnas102:91
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 16:43BC Neptūnas to win against Juventus Utena. The home side's superior recent form—three victories in five matches compared to Juventus Utena's one—gives BC Neptūnas the edge despite Juventus Utena's better head-to-head record over the past six meetings.
BC Neptūnas have shown more consistency at home this season. Their last five results read 380 points scored against 391 conceded, with victories over Lietkabelis on two occasions and a narrow loss to Zalgiris in their most recent outing. The 69:93 defeat at home on 20 September was their heaviest, but they have otherwise remained competitive, winning three of their last five matches.
Juventus Utena's situation is markedly worse. They have managed just one win in five games, scoring 406 points while conceding 476. Four of their five matches ended in defeat, including heavy losses to Zalgiris—77:95 away, 69:100 at home, and 75:107 away. The sole victory came against BC Neptūnas themselves on 3 June, winning 103:90 at home.
Head-to-head record
The rivalry has been finely balanced historically, with 24 matches played and 12 wins apiece. However, the most recent six encounters tell a different story. Juventus Utena have won four of those, including a 103:90 victory on 3 June and an 86:83 win on 29 May. BC Neptūnas won 102:84 at home on 1 June and 95:89 on 6 April, but the away side has dominated the series of late.
The probability of a draw sits at 0%, which is standard for basketball.
The prediction holds only if Juventus Utena can replicate the form that has seen them win four of their last six meetings. Their current trajectory—four losses in five games, including defeats by margins of 18, 31, and 32 points—suggests they are struggling to find consistency. BC Neptūnas, despite their own inconsistencies, have shown they can compete at this level, particularly at home where they won two of three against Lietkabelis.
BC Neptūnas' statistical profile shows 58.78% field goal accuracy from 30.89 rebounds per game, while Juventus Utena have slightly better shooting at 61.43% but fewer rebounds at 26.57. The rebounding difference could prove decisive, especially if Juventus Utena continue to struggle in that area as their recent results suggest.
Confidence: 65%