Belgium Women vs Germany Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026

The model's expected points put Germany well clear, and that gap would hold unless Belgium's current winning streak translates into a performance that exceeds the model's baseline.

Belgium have won their last five matches, scoring 412 points and conceding 369. They have not dropped a game or drawn in that span.

Germany's record in the same period is three wins and two losses. They scored 366 points and conceded 318. Their results include a 94-56 victory over South Korea and a 53-83 defeat to Spain.

The head-to-head shows Belgium won five of six meetings. Their victories came 85-60, 83-59, 97-60, 80-45, and 69-44. Germany's only win was 83-69 at the Olympic Games in July 2024.

The model pegs Belgium at 51.4, Germany at 101.5. It assigns 0% probability to a draw. The expected margin sits at 50.1 points.

A Belgium win would require them to outperform the model's expectation by roughly 37 points while Germany falls short. Given Belgium's recent scoring average of 82.4 points per game, that would mean they score nearly 31 points above the model's projection.

Belgium's team statistics from three matches show 68 field goals, 39.67 rebounds, 25 assists and 10.33 turnovers per game. Germany's four-match averages are 64.5 field goals, 40 rebounds, 21.5 assists and 8.75 turnovers.

The 88% confidence rests on the model's point projection. If Belgium scores closer to their recent average of 82.4 points and Germany remains near their 73.2-point average, the gap narrows to 9.2 points—well within the range where their head-to-head record and Belgium's five-game winning streak would suggest a different outcome.