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Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne: match prediction on 15 October 2026
Brisbane Bullets
South East Melbourne
Prediction for
Win: South East Melbourne
63%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
37%
1
63%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 13 Oct, 09:45- Брисбен Булетс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Саут Ист Мельбурн, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Брисбен Булетс — 5, Саут Ист Мельбурн — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Brisbane Bullets
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
South East Melbourne
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 20
9Brisbane Bullets
0Draw
11South East Melbourne
- 20 Dec 2025South East Melbourne — Brisbane Bullets107:78
- 20 Nov 2025Brisbane Bullets — South East Melbourne76:103
- 25 Oct 2025Brisbane Bullets — South East Melbourne86:109
- 11 Jan 2025South East Melbourne — Brisbane Bullets105:86
- 12 Dec 2024Brisbane Bullets — South East Melbourne116:108
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Oct, 09:45South East Melbourne Phoenix win, 65% confidence. The visitors have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning five of the last six meetings, and the model expects them to score 100.7 points against Brisbane's 89.2.
The visitors have been struggling of late. Their last five matches produced one win and four defeats, with 452 points scored and 474 conceded. But Brisbane have little to celebrate either.
Brisbane Bullets sit on two wins from five, accumulating six points from 459 scored and 479 conceded. Before that came two home victories — 103:95 over Illawarra Hawks and 88:85 against New Zealand Breakers — but the last three outings have been defeats.
The head-to-head tells a clearer story. The most recent encounter ended 107:78 in favour of the visitors on 20 December 2025. Brisbane's sole victory in that span came 116:108 on 12 December 2024 at home. South East Melbourne control these fixtures.
The model's expectations align with the historical record. Brisbane are projected to score 89.2 points, South East Melbourne 100.7. The draw probability sits at 0%, and the model does not expect both sides to reach three points or more. The visitors' offensive output has been stronger in recent games: 113:96 against Illawarra Hawks shows capacity for 113 points when the shooting is falling.
Brisbane's statistical profile suggests they rely more on ball movement. They average 21.4 assists per game compared to South East Melbourne's 18.33, and they dominate the boards with 44.4 total rebounds against 38.83. But the visitors' turnover rate is lower — 11 compared to 13.6 — and they convert more free throws: 17 versus 11.8.
The visitors' defensive rebounding is weaker at 26.5 compared to Brisbane's 29.8, but their overall rebounding deficit of 5.57 per game may not matter if they are scoring more efficiently. South East Melbourne attempt 37.5 three-pointers per game to Brisbane's 35.2, with similar conversion rates of 10.8 and 10.83 respectively.
A win for South East Melbourne requires them to avoid the mistakes that have cost them in recent defeats. Losing 99:104 to Melbourne United at home suggests they can be beaten by disciplined teams.