Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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China vs Lebanon: match prediction on 31 August 2026
China
Lebanon
Prediction for
Win: China
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
55%
1
45%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 12:32- Китай, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Ливан, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
China
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Lebanon
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 1
0China
0Draw
1Lebanon
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 12:32China are 55% to win. They are projected to outscore Lebanon 84.5 to 79.4, a margin that reflects their ability to close out games when their shooting lands, as seen in their 83:57 victory over Qatar away on 27 August 2026.
Recent form
China have won two of their last five matches, losing three, and picked up six points across those games. Their scoreline totals 422:401. Lebanon sit slightly higher with three wins and two losses, nine points and a 434:397 differential.
Head-to-head
Lebanon beat China 72:69 at home in the FIBA Asia Cup on 20 July 2022.
Model analysis
The projection sets China at 84.5 points and Lebanon at 79.4. The near-zero draw probability means the model expects a decisive result, and the low figure for total points reflects the nature of basketball scoring. The margin of 5.1 points is small enough that a single quarter swing could change everything.
Scenarios
But if Lebanon find their rhythm early and China miss their opening shots, the visitors could control the tempo. Lebanon's three wins in five games show they can beat stronger opposition, and if they replicate that 93:74 performance against South Korea, China's margin of expectation narrows to nothing.