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Golden State Valkyries Women vs Dallas Wings Women: match prediction on 3 October 2026

NBA Women Chase Center San Francisco Hit Match page
Golden State Valkyries Women Dallas Wings Women

Prediction for

Win: Golden State Valkyries Women

56%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

56% 1
44% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 2 Oct, 13:05

Valkyries win at home. The model expects 83.8 points for the hosts against 79.1 for Dallas, and the head-to-head record of six victories in eight meetings supports that edge. Confidence: 65%.

The Valkyries sit second in the table with 32 wins and 12 defeats from 44 matches, while Dallas occupy fourth place with 27 wins and 17 losses. Both sides have played the same number of games and carry identical recent form—three victories and two defeats in their last five outings—but the gap in the standings reflects the Valkyries' steadier campaign.

Head-to-head dominance

The Valkyries have won six of the eight meetings since August 2025, with Dallas claiming two victories. The most recent encounter on 1 October ended 108:100 in Dallas's favour, but before that the Valkyries won three consecutive games, including a 104:80 home victory on 28 September. The pattern suggests the hosts hold the advantage when playing at their own venue.

Scoring expectations

The model projects the Valkyries to outscore Dallas by roughly four points, with 83.8 expected points compared to 79.1. That margin aligns with the home record: the Valkyries won at home against Dallas on 28 September by 24 points and on 18 August by eight points. Dallas have only managed one away victory here, the 108:100 result on 1 October.

What breaks the prediction

A draw is impossible, but the model assigns a 0% probability to that scenario. More realistically, if Dallas replicate their October 1 performance—scoring 108 points and holding the Valkyries to 100—the prediction fails. The visitors have shown they can produce a high-scoring game when they find their rhythm, and that is the main threat.

Recent form context

Both teams have scored and conceded similar totals in their last five matches. The Valkyries have netted 432 points while allowing 410, giving them a +22 differential. Dallas have scored 464 and conceded 464, a zero differential. The Valkyries' positive margin, combined with their home advantage and head-to-head record, explains why the model favours them.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 2 Oct, 13:05
  • Голден Стэйт Валькириес — 2. place, 0 points after 44 games (32 wins, 12 losses)
  • Даллас Уингз Уимен — 4. place, 0 points after 44 games (27 wins, 17 losses)
  • Голден Стэйт Валькириес, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Даллас Уингз Уимен, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Голден Стэйт Валькириес — 6, Даллас Уингз Уимен — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Golden State Valkyries Women LWWWW 4 wins · 1 loss
Dallas Wings Women LWLWL 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 8

6Golden State Valkyries Women 0Draw 2Dallas Wings Women
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+