Indiana Fever Women vs Connecticut Sun Women: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Indiana Fever to win with confidence

Indiana have won three of their last five games, including a convincing 113:90 victory over Chicago Sky away from home. They've been particularly strong at the end of August, winning four of their last six matches across all competitions. Connecticut, meanwhile, have lost three of their past five, most recently falling 64:89 to Golden State Valkyries at home. That result came just days before this fixture and suggests they're struggling for rhythm.

Indiana's last eight matches read: win, loss, loss, win, win, win, win, win. Connecticut's corresponding period shows: loss, win, loss, loss, win, loss, loss, win. One team is building confidence; the other appears to be searching for consistency.

Looking at the last six encounters between these sides, Indiana have won five. The most recent meeting on 23 July produced a 123:88 victory for the Fever — a 35-point margin that demonstrates their superiority when these teams meet.

Indiana are expected to score 93.6 points while Connecticut are expected to manage 80.6. These figures align with the teams' recent averages — Indiana are averaging 71.2 points per game this season, Connecticut 68.1. The gap between them has been consistent throughout the campaign.

Indiana's offensive efficiency shows in their shooting percentages and rebounding. They average 31.4 rebounds per game compared to Connecticut's 32.3, but their assist-to-turnover ratio is superior. The Fever average 20.8 assists against 12.1 turnovers, while Connecticut manage 18.1 assists with 14.1 turnovers. That difference in ball security matters in close games.

Indiana are predicted to maintain their current form while Connecticut fail to find their rhythm.

There's also the question of motivation. Both teams have played their seasons, but Indiana's position in the standings — second or fifth according to conflicting sources — suggests they're fighting for something. Connecticut, sitting seventh or fourteenth, may have less to play for depending on how the standings are calculated.

The numbers support this: better form, dominant recent head-to-head record, and the clear projection. If Connecticut can improve their defensive rebounding and reduce turnovers, they could make it closer, but I don't see enough evidence to expect anything other than another home victory for the Fever.