Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: match prediction on 26 September 2026

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win. The model projects 100.1 points for the hosts against 74.6 for the visitors, a gap wide enough to ignore their recent struggles. Eight wins from nine meetings in the past few years gives Hapoel Tel Aviv a statistical advantage.

Hapoel Tel Aviv have lost four of their last five matches, picking up just three points from 416 scored and 441 conceded. Their only victory came away at Maccabi Tel Aviv 80:74 on 21 June. Since then they have dropped to Bayern Munich 84:86 and lost two Super League encounters at home against the same rivals. The trend is downward, but the model does not factor in momentum.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva have won two of five, also without a draw, scoring 429 and conceding 473. Their victories came against Maccabi Rishon LeZion 84:75 and Maccabi Ashdod B.C. 103:101 in the League Cup. Three defeats followed, including heavy losses to Maccabi Tel Aviv away 90:106 and at home 83:108. They have shown they can compete, but the model expects them to fall well short.

The head-to-head record tells a different story from recent form. Hapoel Tel Aviv have won eight of nine meetings, including five of the six matches listed in the database. Their most recent encounter ended 112:108 in January at home. Hapoel Be'er Sheva's sole victory came 82:83 at home in February 2025. The pattern suggests the visitors are not built to handle this fixture.

The model's projection rests on historical scoring patterns and does not account for injuries or tactical changes.