Indonesia vs South Korea: match prediction on 11 September 2026

South Korea are overwhelming favourites here, and the data leaves no room for doubt. The model puts their expected points at 150.4 against Indonesia's 38, a gap that matches what we have seen in every recent encounter between these sides. South Korea have won all four meetings since 2021, and their recent form shows they can still produce big scores when it matters.

Both teams arrived at this match with identical records — two wins and three losses from their last five games — but the context tells a different story. Indonesia lost 53:98 to Japan on 10 September, just a day before this fixture, and have struggled defensively across their recent matches. South Korea won 82:66 against Saudi Arabia on the same date, and their averages show they move the ball better, committing 11 turnovers per game compared to Indonesia's 16.67 while registering 20 assists to Indonesia's 13.67.

The head-to-head record is the clearest indicator of what to expect. South Korea won 90:63 in February 2025, 86:78 in November 2024, 95:55 at the 2023 Asian Games, and 104:81 in June 2021. The margins are consistent — South Korea typically outscore their opponents by 15 to 40 points when these two meet. Indonesia have yet to register a single victory in this fixture over the past five years.

The model's expectations align with the historical pattern. A 0% draw probability and 0% chance of a low-scoring affair reflect the sheer disparity in quality. South Korea's field goal conversion rate of 27.75 out of 62.5 attempts (44.4%) is higher than Indonesia's 23.33 out of 56 (41.7%), and their three-point accuracy of 9.75 out of 28 (34.8%) edges Indonesia's 6.67 out of 21 (31.8%). The model expects South Korea to exploit these advantages relentlessly.

Indonesia would need to replicate their offensive output against Singapore and South Korea would need a collapse to overturn this.

South Korea win comfortably, 145-40.

Confidence: 85%