KTP Basket Kotka vs Bisons Loimaa: match prediction on 29 September 2026

KTP Basket Kotka to win, at 56% confidence. The hosts have taken three of the last eight meetings between these sides, and their recent form in cup competitions shows they can close out games. Bisons Loimaa are slightly better on paper with three wins in five, but they have struggled against stronger opposition and their away record is not strong.

Recent form

KTP Basket Kotka have won two and lost three in their last five matches, scoring 402 points and conceding 414. The two wins came in the Finnish Cup against Kipinä Basket 86:78 and Karhu Basket 95:88. Their losses all came against Helsinki Seagulls in the league, a stronger side. The margin of defeat in those losses was 8, 10 and 9 points.

Bisons Loimaa have three wins and two losses in the same period, with 435 points for and 430 against. Their only loss came at home against Salon Vilpas Vikings 74:101, a heavy defeat. Their away win against Pyrinto Tampere 74:68 shows they can compete on the road. The three wins came against Lahti Basketball 92:89, Kataja 89:92 and Lapuan Kobrat 106:80.

The history between them

Eight matches have been played since March 2024. Bisons Loimaa have won five, KTP Basket Kotka three. The most recent meeting was on 19 December 2025, when KTP Basket Kotka won 85:72 at home. Before that, Bisons Loimaa won 92:68 away on 17 October 2025. Bisons Loimaa have dominated away from home, while KTP Basket Kotka have been competitive on their own court.

The prediction is KTP Basket Kotka to score 85.8 points and Bisons Loimaa 81.5. That 4.3-point margin aligns with the home advantage seen in the most recent meeting. The draw probability is 0%, which is standard for basketball where overtime resolves any tie.

What could change things

KTP Basket Kotka must not allow the game to drift beyond a single-digit margin, as their recent cup wins showed they can close out leads. An early deficit against a side that has won five of eight meetings would be difficult to recover from.

They beat two cup opponents in September, and their league form against Seagulls, while poor, was not disastrous. The absence of any injury reports suggests both sides are at full strength. The prediction holds as long as KTP Basket Kotka maintain their recent home standard — and they have won two of the four meetings at this venue since March 2024.