Levski Sofia vs Cherno More: match prediction on 12 October 2026

Cherno More to win. The visitors have won five of the last six meetings between these sides, and the model expects them to score 88.6 points against Levski Sofia's 80. That gap is enough to carry a side through despite a winless run of five matches.

Levski Sofia have taken six points from their last five games — two wins and three defeats. Their scoring has been tight: 406 points for, 442 against. Cherno More, by contrast, have lost all five of their most recent fixtures and conceded 459 goals while scoring 401. The difference between them on paper looks wider than it is, because the head-to-head record tells a different tale.

The most recent meeting on 24 March 2026 ended 103-89 in their favour at Levski's home ground. Before that, they won 109-77 away in January 2026. Cherno More have been the stronger side in this fixture despite their recent struggles.

The model projects Cherno More to score 88.6 points and Levski Sofia 80. The draw probability sits at 0%, and the chance of both teams scoring is also 0%. Three or more goals are expected at 0%. These figures suggest a one-sided affair where Cherno More's attack dominates.

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Levski Sofia start strongly and hold a lead through the first quarter, the visitors may settle for a draw rather than push for a win. The model knows nothing of injuries or the fixture list, so any sudden change in Levski's lineup could shift the estimate. The confidence is 62%, and that figure drops if Cherno More fail to score past 85 points.