Nagasaki vs Shimane: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Nagasaki are projected to win on Thursday. The model projects 85.6 to 77, and the home side's recent home form—three wins in five—gives them the edge over a Shimane outfit that has struggled away from its own court. The probability is 59%, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming advantage.

Though the detailed breakdown shows three wins and two losses across those same games, with 373 points scored against 377 conceded. The most recent outing ended badly: a 64:89 home defeat to Shimane on 23 September. Before that they beat Ryukyu twice and Chiba once, but lost to Ryukyu in another.

Shimane's form is similarly uneven. Their five-match record also shows three wins and two losses, with 408 points for and 396 against. They started the season with a 64:89 away victory at Nagasaki. The away record is the concern—only that one result against Nagasaki counts as a true road win.

The most recent meeting on 23 September saw Shimane triumph 89:64 in the away fixture. Before that, Nagasaki won 106:74 at home on 22 April.

The model gives the draw a negligible probability and rates both teams to score as negligible, with 3+ points also at negligible. These figures point to a decisive result rather than a tight contest. Nagasaki's expected 85.6 points reflects their offensive output at home, while Shimane's 77 accounts for their struggles on the road.