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South East Melbourne vs Illawarra Hawks: match prediction on 4 October 2026

NBL John Cain Arena Melbourne Hit Match page
South East Melbourne Illawarra Hawks

Prediction for

Win: South East Melbourne

59%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

59% 1
41% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 2 Oct, 05:10

South East Melbourne are the pick to win tonight, 59% confidence. The model projects 103.1 points for the hosts against 95.5 for Illawarra Hawks, and the home court gives them the edge in a fixture where recent results have been too close to call.

Their last five games read 2 wins and 3 losses, identical to Illawarra's record. South East Melbourne lost four of their last five, including a 61:86 home defeat to Melbourne United and a 91:96 away loss to Tasmania JackJumpers. Illawarra Hawks won their most recent match 114:92 at home against Adelaide before dropping three straight on the road.

The head-to-head tells a different story. Over 15 meetings the Hawks hold a narrow advantage with 8 wins to South East Melbourne's 7. The last encounter at this venue, 8 January 2026, ended 124:113 to the hosts. Before that, Illawarra won 113:109 away on 4 December 2025.

But if Illawarra Hawks take an early lead and control the tempo, the prediction changes.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 2 Oct, 05:10
  • Саут Ист Мельбурн, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Иллауарра Хокс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 15 games, Саут Ист Мельбурн — 7, Иллауарра Хокс — 8

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

South East Melbourne LLWWL 2 wins · 3 losses
Illawarra Hawks LWLLW 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 22

11South East Melbourne 0Draw 11Illawarra Hawks
All head-to-head

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+