Toyama Grouses vs Utsunomiya Brex: match prediction on 4 October 2026

Toyama Grouses are set to beat Utsunomiya Brex again, this time at home, and momentum is on their side after winning four of their last five games. Utsunomiya have lost four of their last five, including the meeting just one day ago when they conceded 77 points in Toyama's 77:67 victory.

Recent form

Toyama's record over the past five matches reads 4 wins and 1 loss, with 454 points scored against 431 conceded. They beat Shinshu away 99:85, then lost narrowly 81:99 to the same side before winning 101:91 and 96:89 against Hiroshima Dragonflies on the road. Utsunomiya's tally tells a different story: 1 win and 4 losses, 374 points for and 393 against. Their only victory came 88:78 at home against Yokohama B-Corsairs, while defeats came at the hands of Yokohama 71:74, Nagoya 66:75, and Nagoya again 82:89.

Yesterday's meeting

The most recent encounter between these sides happened on 03.10.2026, with Toyama winning 77:67 at home. Before that, Utsunomiya had won 5 of the previous 6 meetings between the two clubs, including victories of 89:85, 85:66, 80:51, 85:60, and 82:76. The visitors had dominated the head-to-head until yesterday.

Model expectations

The statistical model projects Toyama scoring 69.4 points and Utsunomiya 100, though yesterday's 77:67 result contradicts those figures. The model gives 0% probability for a draw, 0% for both teams to score over 50 points, and 0% for 3 or more goals. These numbers do not match what actually happened, the model has not adjusted for recent form changes.

What could change the outcome

The prediction of another Toyama win fails if Utsunomiya rediscover the form that saw them dominate the head-to-head for so long. They have shown they can score 88 points at home, and their three-point shooting averages 11.3 successful attempts per game compared to Toyama's 7.1. If they connect from distance and control the tempo, yesterday's result could be an anomaly, not a turning point.