Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Essex Women vs Surrey Women: match prediction on 6 September 2026
Essex Women
Surrey Women
Prediction for
Win: Surrey Women
79%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
21%
1
79%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 4 Sep, 10:49- Эссекс (жен.) — 9. place, 12 points after 13 games (3 wins, 10 losses)
- Суррей (жен.) — 6. place, 26 points after 13 games (6 wins, 7 losses)
- Эссекс (жен.), last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Суррей (жен.), last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Эссекс (жен.) — 1, Суррей (жен.) — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Essex Women
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
Surrey Women
LWWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 7
1Essex Women
0Draw
5Surrey Women
- 5 JulEssex Women — Surrey Women185/1:184/4
- 5 JunSurrey Women — Essex Women149/5:145/6
- 12 MaySurrey Women — Essex Women229/7:227
- 10 Sep 2025Surrey Women — Essex Women313/5:—
- 6 Jul 2025Surrey Women — Essex Women159/5:93/5
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 4 Sep, 10:49Surrey Women to win. Confidence 72%.
The model projects Surrey Women to score 235.2 runs against Essex Women's 149.3. Surrey sit 6th with 26 points, Essex 9th with 12. Fourteen points separate them in the table, and the model's runs total suggests a similar margin on the pitch.
Recent form offers no divergence. Both teams have won two and lost three in their last five matches. Essex's results include a 202:208 defeat away to Warwickshire and a 266:267 loss at home to Somerset. Surrey's record features a 167:234 loss to Lancashire and a narrow 172:171 victory over Yorkshire. Surrey's six wins carry more weight than Essex's three.
Head-to-head history reinforces the hierarchy. In six meetings over recent years, Surrey have won five, Essex one. The exception came on 05.07.2026 in the Vitality Blast, when Essex edged Surrey 185:184 by a single run. That was an outlier in a pattern of Surrey dominance. The other five encounters saw Surrey prevail, including a 229:227 win in the One-Day Cup and a 159:93 victory in the T20 Blast.
The model's probabilities leave no room for a draw. The chance of a tied match sits at 0%. The model gives a 0% chance of both sides reaching their target. The run totals suggest Essex will struggle to reach Surrey's projected scoreline. A margin of 85.9 runs is substantial in one-day cricket.
Essex only win if the model misses. That would require Essex to bat significantly better than expected or Surrey to fall well short of 235.2. Given the head-to-head record and the league standings, such a reversal would be unusual.
Surrey's consistency across the season has earned them a higher position and, according to the model, a comfortable victory on 06.09.2026.