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India vs Pakistan: match prediction on 3 October 2026
India
Pakistan
Prediction for
Win: India
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
57%
1
43%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Oct, 03:30- Индия, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Пакистан, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Индия — 9, Пакистан — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
India
WWWWW
5 wins
Pakistan
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 15
10India
0Draw
4Pakistan
- 15 FebIndia — Pakistan175/7:114
- 7 Nov 2025India — Pakistan86/4:41/1
- 28 Sep 2025India — Pakistan150/5:146
- 21 Sep 2025India — Pakistan174/4:171/5
- 14 Sep 2025India — Pakistan131/3:127/9
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Oct, 03:30India to win, with 57% confidence. The form gap is decisive: India have won five straight matches, Pakistan have lost three of their last five, and India have won nine of the last eleven meetings between the sides.
India's run has been unbroken. They beat Sri Lanka 169 to 45 at home, then saw Shubman Gill score 223 in a record chase against West Indies on 30 September, winning 406 to 405. The following day they edged 300 to 295 in the same series. Before that came a 32 to 30 thriller in Sano against Japan, decided on the final ball, and a 221 to 94 demolition of Afghanistan. Fifteen points from fifteen available, no draws, no defeats.
Pakistan's trajectory runs the other way. They beat Bangladesh 112 to 111 away on 1 October, but the other four results tell a different story. Three losses to England on tour — 582 to 583, 304 to 498, 306 to 409 — and a narrow 502 to 499 win against a County Select XI. Six points from fifteen, with the heavy defeats coming against the same opponents on consecutive visits.
The history between them adds an edge that favours India. In the last eleven encounters they have met, India won nine, Pakistan two. The most recent was a 175 to 114 victory for India in the ICC T20 World Cup in February. Before that came a string of Asia Cup matches: India won five of six, with Pakistan's sole success coming in the Champions Trophy in February 2025, 244 to 241.
The model projects India at 182.6 and Pakistan at 171.6, with a 0% probability of a draw and 0% for both sides to score. Those figures sit with the pattern of results — India's consistency, Pakistan's vulnerability in away fixtures against stronger opposition.
A draw suits Pakistan — and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. If they can grind out a result and force the game into a phase where India's aggression works against them, the confidence drops. But India have not lost in five, and Pakistan have not won away from home against England in three attempts.