Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Pakistan Women vs Sri Lanka Women: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Pakistan Women
Sri Lanka Women
Prediction for
Win: Pakistan Women
51%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
51%
1
49%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 15:40- Пакистан (женщины) — 2. place, 4 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Шри-Ланка (женщины) — 1. place, 6 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Пакистан (женщины), last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Шри-Ланка (женщины), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Пакистан (женщины) — 4, Шри-Ланка (женщины) — 8
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Pakistan Women
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Sri Lanka Women
WLWWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 21
9Pakistan Women
0Draw
10Sri Lanka Women
- 20 SepPakistan Women — Sri Lanka Women177/4:178/2
- 4 AugSri Lanka Women — Pakistan Women113/6:115/6
- 2 AugSri Lanka Women — Pakistan Women178/4:175/5
- 31 JulSri Lanka Women — Pakistan Women177/4:176/7
- 28 JulSri Lanka Women — Pakistan Women191/2:187
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 15:40Pakistan Women to win. The model expects them to edge Sri Lanka Women 161-158.4, and that expectation is reinforced by Pakistan's six-match winning streak against Sri Lanka at this venue. The model holds.
The head-to-head record is the governing factor here. Pakistan won all six meetings played at Sri Lanka's ground between July and August: 211-210, 273-275, 187-191, 176-177, 175-178, and 115-113. Those margins are razor-thin—two matches decided by a single run—but Pakistan took the points each time. Sri Lanka's perfect three-from-three start to this tournament looks impressive on paper, but the scoreboard tells a different story when these two meet.
Pakistan's recent form shows flashes of vulnerability. They lost 55-57 to India and 175-178 to Sri Lanka in their last five matches, but they also beat Hong Kong 143-71 and Thailand 119-84. Sri Lanka won four of their last five, including a 124-49 demolition of Indonesia and a 115-114 thriller against Bangladesh. Both sides are scoring freely, which aligns with the model's expectation of 161 and 158.4 runs respectively.
The table standings suggest Sri Lanka should be the stronger side. Six points from three matches, unbeaten, sitting top of the Women's Twenty20 Asia Cup. Pakistan sit second with four points from three, one defeat on their record. But standings don't capture the psychological edge Pakistan has built over these six encounters.
The model's 0% draw probability is the clearest signal. These matches rarely end level. Pakistan's expected run total of 161 sits above Sri Lanka's 158.4, and the pattern of their recent meetings supports a narrow victory rather than a collapse. The pick fails if Sri Lanka's unbeaten run breaks here.
Pakistan Women, 65% confidence. The model's run expectations (161-158.4) and Pakistan's six-match winning streak at this venue point in the same direction. Sri Lanka's table position is irrelevant if Pakistan continue their pattern of snatching victories in tight finishes.