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Qatar vs United Arab Emirates: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Prediction for
Win: Qatar
51%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
51%
1
49%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 14:53- Катар, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Объединенные Арабские Эмираты, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Катар — 0, Объединенные Арабские Эмираты — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Qatar
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
United Arab Emirates
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 4
0Qatar
0Draw
4United Arab Emirates
- 8 Oct 2025Qatar — United Arab Emirates118/8:119/3
- 18 Dec 2024United Arab Emirates — Qatar162/6:139/7
- 26 Nov 2024Qatar — United Arab Emirates177:206/3
- 20 Sep 2023Qatar — United Arab Emirates106:166/7
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 14:53With a confidence level of 51%, the model projects a narrow victory for Qatar. The run projections put the hosts ahead despite United Arab Emirates' perfect head-to-head record, and Qatar's recent home form against Bahrain suggests they can hold their nerve in a close contest.
Home advantage in the balance
Qatar have played all five of their recent matches at home, winning four and losing one to Bahrain. They scored 923 runs while conceding 792 across those fixtures, showing consistency on their own turf. The only defeat came 187-191 on 14 February, a margin of just six runs. Their highest total was 215 against Bahrain on 11 February, and they have not dropped below 115 runs in any of these games.
UAE's away pattern
United Arab Emirates have played all five of their recent matches away from home. They won three and lost two, scoring 1,337 runs while conceding 1,206. Their biggest win came against Canada, 282-185 on 11 August. Their closest match was a loss to Scotland, 231-235 on 9 August, decided by just four runs. They have not dropped below 231 runs in any of these fixtures.
History runs the other way
United Arab Emirates have won all four previous meetings between the sides. The most recent was on 8 October 2025, when UAE beat Qatar 119-118 in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia and EAP Qualifier. Before that, they won 162-139 on 18 December 2024, 206-177 on 26 November 2024, and 166-106 on 20 September 2023. The average margin of victory across those four matches was 24 runs.
What the numbers suggest
The model expects Qatar to score 158.7 runs and United Arab Emirates 157.2, a difference of just 1.5 runs. Both teams have shown they can post totals in the 150-200 range in recent matches. Qatar's home totals against Bahrain averaged 184.4, while UAE's away totals averaged 267.4. The model's confidence sits at 51%, reflecting how evenly matched these sides appear despite the historical record.
When the prediction falls apart
A result where United Arab Emirates win by more than 30 runs would break this conclusion. Their head-to-head record shows they can dominate when they find their rhythm, and their away totals have been significantly higher than the model expects. If they replicate their average away scoring of 267 runs while holding Qatar to under 150, the model's narrow projection collapses entirely.