Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Alavés vs Villarreal: match prediction on 28 August 2026
Alavés
Villarreal
Prediction for
Win: Villarreal
42%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
30%
1
27%
X
42%
2
Average bookmaker line (50)
3.15
1
3.49
X
2.24
2
Odds range
2.15 — 2.33
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:58- Средняя линия 50 букмекеров: победа Вильярреал 2.26, победа Алавес 3.09, ничья 3.47
- Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 2.15 до 2.33 (8%)
- Алавес — 5. place, 4 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Вильярреал — 10. place, 2 points after 2 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Алавес, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Вильярреал, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Алавес — 1, 3 draws, Вильярреал — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Alavés
DWDWW
3 wins · 2 draws
Villarreal
DDLLL
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 10
3Alavés
3Draw
4Villarreal
- 13 MarAlavés — Villarreal1:1
- 10 JanVillarreal — Alavés3:1
- 8 Mar 2025Alavés — Villarreal1:0
- 9 Nov 2024Villarreal — Alavés3:0
- 10 Feb 2024Alavés — Villarreal1:1
Bookmaker market
50
bookmakers counted
2.24
Average bookmaker line
2.15 — 2.33
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 11:58I'm backing Villarreal to edge this one at 2.24. The away side has drawn twice already this season and looks comfortable grinding out results, while Alavés have shown vulnerability in the final quarter of matches — 40% of their goals come after the 76th minute, which suggests they can be caught napping when games get tight. The model puts Villarreal slightly ahead on expected goals at 1.5 to 1.4, and that edge shows up in the odds movement too.
Villarreal's two draws came against Atlético Madrid and Racing Santander, which is a different kettle of fish. Alavés drew 1:1 with Rayo, which is respectable but doesn't carry the same weight.
Looking at the timeline of goals, there's something worth noting about how these teams finish matches. Alavés concede 36% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Villarreal's defensive frailties are spread more evenly at 23% in the same period. That late-game vulnerability for Alavés could be decisive if Villarreal hold firm for 75 minutes and then push forward. The model's 56% probability for three or more goals suggests we should expect an open finish rather than a cagey affair.
Head-to-head history doesn't give us a clear picture either way. Six meetings show three draws, two wins for Villarreal and one for Alavés. The most recent was a 1:1 draw in March, but before that Villarreal won 3:1 at home in January. Alavés did take all three points at Mendizorrotza in March 2025, but that was a narrow 1:0 victory. These games tend to be close, which is why the draw sits at 3.49 — but Villarreal's away form this season has been to grind out points rather than chase them.
This prediction holds as long as Villarreal maintain their current approach of not chasing the game. If they go behind early and have to open up, Alavés' attacking threat — particularly Antonio Martínez López with nine goals in six months — could turn things. But at 2.24, the value lies with the visitors who have already shown they can get results against stronger opposition. The 25% draw probability is the second-highest outcome, but Villarreal's edge in expected goals tips the balance.