Aluminium Arak vs Malavan Bandar Anzali: match prediction on 8 October 2026

A home win for Aluminium Arak

There is no reason to back Malavan against a side that has gone five matches without defeat. Aluminium Arak take on Malavan Bandar Anzali on 8 October at their home ground, and the model gives the hosts a 46% chance of victory. The gap between them is clear in the table: twelve points to seven, and a record that shows the hosts have won more matches than the visitors.

Aluminium Arak sit fourth after six matches, with three wins and three draws. They have not lost yet. Their last five games produced two victories and three draws — against Esteghlal FC at home they held a 0:0, they beat Gol Gohar 2:0 away, and they drew 2:2 with Kheybar Khorramabad. They score when needed and concede sparingly. In those five matches they netted six goals and let in three.

Malavan cannot find a result

Malavan Bandar Anzali are twelfth with seven points from two wins, one draw and three losses. Their last five matches tell a different story: two wins but three defeats and no draws. They beat Mes Shahr-e Babak 2:1 away and ZOB Ahan 2:1 at home, but they lost to Nassaji Mazandaran 0:1, Persepolis 0:3 and Fajr Sepasi 0:1. They have scored four goals in that run and conceded seven. The absence of draws is not a positive sign against a side that draws often.

The history of stalemates

In seven meetings over recent years, Aluminium Arak have won zero, Malavan one, and six ended level. The most recent was a 0:1 victory for Malavan on 26 December 2025. Before that, two consecutive 1:1 draws in the league and the Hazfi Cup. The visitors have taken only a single point from seven attempts at this ground, but the overall pattern is one of tight, low-scoring games.

Where the match will be decided

The model expects Aluminium Arak to score 1.1 goals and Malavan 0.6. The most probable scorelines are 0:0 at 19%, 1:0 at 18% and 1:1 at 14%. A draw probability sits at 35% and both teams to score at 34%. Aluminium Arak have scored 36% of their goals in the final fifteen minutes and conceded half of theirs in the same period. Malavan have conceded 60% of their goals in the closing quarter of an hour. If the game stays tight and the hosts exploit that late window, the win is theirs. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they have struggled to find results away from home, the draw is the alternative outcome.