Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar: match prediction on 1 September 2026
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
Prediction for
Win: Atletico Grau
37%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
32%
1
31%
X
37%
2
Average bookmaker line (47)
2.88
1
2.96
X
2.49
2
Odds range
2.75 — 3.15
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 21:03- Атлетико Грау — 16. place, 16 points after 17 games (4 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses)
- ФБК Мельгар — 5. place, 28 points after 17 games (8 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses)
- Атлетико Грау, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- ФБК Мельгар, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Атлетико Грау — 2, 4 draws, ФБК Мельгар — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Atletico Grau
WWDWL
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
FBC Melgar
LWDLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 10
2Atletico Grau
4Draw
4FBC Melgar
- 15 MarFBC Melgar — Atletico Grau0:0
- 5 Oct 2025Atletico Grau — FBC Melgar0:0
- 19 May 2025FBC Melgar — Atletico Grau1:1
- 24 Sep 2024FBC Melgar — Atletico Grau0:0
- 21 Apr 2024Atletico Grau — FBC Melgar1:2
Bookmaker market
47
bookmakers counted
2.88
Average bookmaker line
2.75 — 3.15
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 21:03I see FBC Melgar avoiding defeat, with a draw likely. The visitors carry a 12-point advantage over Atletico Grau in the table and have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, while the model puts the probability of a stalemate at 30% — the highest single outcome for this fixture.
Atletico Grau sit 16th with 16 points from 17 matches, having won just four and lost nine. FBC Melgar occupy fifth place with 28 points, their record of eight wins, four draws and five defeats. The gap between them is clear, yet the recent form tells a different story:,.
The head-to-head record reinforces the cautious tone. In eight meetings over recent years, each side has claimed two victories while four ended level. The last six fixtures produced four draws,. Melgar's only win in that span came 3:0 in July 2023, while Grau's solitary victory was 1:2 in April 2024. These are tight, low-scoring encounters.
The model expects Atletico Grau to score 1.1 goals and FBC Melgar 1.0, with the three most probable scorelines being 1:1 (13%), 1:0 (13%) and 0:1 (12%). Both teams show vulnerability in the final quarter of an hour — Grau have conceded 36% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute, while Melgar's figure is 44%. That pattern could keep the match balanced until the closing stages.
A draw suits the visitors, and, that is the main threat to my conclusion. If Melgar fall behind early and are forced to chase, the away side's defensive record — particularly their susceptibility after the break — could open the door for an upset. The prediction does not hold if the home side score first and exploit Melgar's late-game weaknesses.