Bahia Women vs Corinthians Women: match prediction on 16 September 2026

Corinthians Women are the clear favourites to take all three points at home against Bahia. The visitors have won four of their last six meetings, Corinthians sit nine points clear in second place, and the model gives them a slight edge with 1.7 expected goals to Bahia's 1.4. The most likely scoreline is 1:2 at 9%, just behind 1:1 at 10%.

In their last five matches Bahia have drawn four and won one, conceding five goals while scoring eight. They are hard to break down, but they are also hard to beat — a pattern that has kept them in sixth place with 29 points. Their recent run includes two draws against Palmeiras and a 2:2 with Juventude, suggesting they can match teams in attack but struggle to close out results.

Three wins from their last five, including back-to-back victories over Cruzeiro at 3:1 and 1:0, show Corinthians can dominate matches when they need to. They have scored 10 goals in that span while conceding six, and their attacking output — 7.6 shots on target per game on average — is noticeably higher than Bahia's 6.2. The loss to Internacional 1:3 in that run is the exception rather than the rule.

The head-to-head tells a straightforward story. Corinthians have won four of the last six encounters, with only one draw and one loss for Bahia. The most recent meeting ended 1:1 in August, but before that Corinthians won 2:0, 1:2, 5:1, 1:5 and 2:0 across the previous four fixtures. When Corinthians take the game to Bahia, they tend to prevail.

Corinthians sit second with 38 points after 17 matches, nine ahead of Bahia in sixth. With only one match remaining in the season, Corinthians are in title contention and will approach this as a must-win situation. Bahia, mid-table with no European or relegation pressure, have less at stake — a factor that often influences how teams respond in the closing stages.

The model's figures point toward a tight match with a Corinthians edge. Both teams to score sits at 63%, and three or more goals at 61%, suggesting this will not be a cagey affair. Bahia's 1.4 expected goals aligns with their recent defensive resilience, while Corinthians' 1.7 reflects their superior shot volume and conversion rate. The three most likely scorelines — 1:1, 1:2, 2:1 — all cluster around one-goal margins, which fits the head-to-head trend of close but decisive results.

A 1:1 result is the single most likely outcome at 10%, and Bahia have shown they can grind out results even against stronger opposition. If Corinthians cannot break through in the opening half, or if Bahia's defensive organisation holds firm for 90 minutes, the visitors could walk away with a point.