Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Beroe vs Montana: match prediction on 3 September 2026
Beroe
Montana
Prediction for
Win: Beroe
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
39%
1
30%
X
31%
2
Average bookmaker line (34)
2.33
1
3.03
X
2.87
2
Odds range
2.05 — 2.42
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 18:16- Берое — 7. place, 10 points after 6 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
- Монтана — 6. place, 10 points after 6 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses)
- Берое, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Монтана, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Берое — 1, 2 draws, Монтана — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Beroe
LWDDD
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Montana
WLWDL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 5
1Beroe
4Draw
0Montana
- 5 MayBeroe — Montana2:2
- 22 MarMontana — Beroe0:1
- 20 Oct 2025Beroe — Montana1:1
- 24 Apr 2021Montana — Beroe1:1
- 19 Dec 2020Beroe — Montana0:0
Bookmaker market
34
bookmakers counted
2.33
Average bookmaker line
2.05 — 2.42
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 18:16Beroe to win at 2.17. The home side holds a clear advantage in the head-to-head record and has shown more consistency at their own ground, while Montana carry a disciplinary vulnerability — Tomás Alexandre Rente Azevedo sits on three yellow cards and is one booking from suspension. That is the main condition under which this conclusion stops holding: if Montana's captain is ruled out, the visitors' defensive structure loses a familiar presence and the match could drift into a 3.06 draw instead.
Form on the road
Beroe have taken seven points from five matches, winning against Spartak Pleven 3:0 and Ludogorets II 2:0 at home, but losing away to Fratria 0:2 and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0:1. Montana are more unpredictable — three wins from five, including a 3:0 victory at home against Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and a 1:0 win over Marek, but they have also suffered defeats away to Rilski Sportist Samokov 1:2 and Yantra 2019 2:3. The visitors score more freely but concede just as often, which makes their away performances harder to read.
The head-to-head
Over the last three meetings Beroe have won once and drawn twice, with Montana unable to secure a single victory. The most recent encounter ended 2:2 in May, but before that Beroe took a 1:0 win in March and drew 1:1 in October 2025. This pattern suggests Montana struggle to find a formula against this particular opponent, even when the points tally is level.
Timing matters
Beroe concede heavily in the final quarter — 38% of their goals against come between the 76th and 90th minute — while Montana have allowed 22% of their goals in that same window. If the match stays tight, the home side's tendency to open up late could work against them, especially if Montana are still pushing for an equaliser. At the same time, Montana score 29% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, which means an early strike could shift the entire dynamic.
What the model says
The model expects Beroe to score 1.2 goals and Montana 0.7, with a 30% probability of a draw and 35% for both teams to find the net. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 18%, followed by 0:0 at 15% and 1:1 at 12%. This points to a low-scoring affair where the home side's edge in the head-to-head and Montana's disciplinary issue tip the balance — but only if Montana's captain remains available to organise their defence.