Andebol 1
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Prediction for
Win: Boeun Sangmu
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (37)
Odds range
1.93 — 2.25
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 21
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 31 Aug, 11:07Boeun Sangmu are the favourites to take all three points at Changnyeong on 2 September, because of the visitors' superior head-to-head record and the home side's winless run of five matches. The model expects 1.7 goals for Boeun Boeun Sangmu against 1 for Changnyeong, and the most likely scoreline is 0:1 at 11 per cent.
Changnyeong have drawn three and lost two of their last five league games, collecting just 3 points while scoring 3 goals and conceding 7.
Boeun Boeun Sangmu have won twice and lost three times in their last five outings, gathering 6 points with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. They lost 0:1 at home to Gumi Sportstoto on 29 August, then bounced back with a 2:1 away victory over Incheon Red Angels. A 1:3 loss away to Suwon FC Women, a 2:1 home win against Seoul FC, and a 2:3 away defeat to Gyeongju complete the sequence.
The head-to-head record over recent years heavily favours Boeun Boeun Sangmu. In 15 meetings, Changnyeong have won 4, drawn 2, and lost 9. The most recent encounter on 18 July saw Boeun Sangmu lose 0:1 at home, while the fixture on 1 July ended 1:2 in favour of the visitors. Before that, Boeun Sangmu won 1:0 at home on 11 April. Boeun Sangmu rarely lose at home.
The model projects Changnyeong to score 1 goal and Boeun Boeun Sangmu to score 1.7, with a 24 per cent probability of a draw and 52 per cent for both teams to find the net. The three most likely scorelines are 0:1 at 11 per cent, 1:1 at 11 per cent, and 0:2 at 10 per cent. They score heavily in the second half.
If Changnyeong find a way to exploit the 31-45 minute period where they have conceded 38 per cent of their goals, the visitors could slip up.