Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise: match prediction on 5 September 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise win at 2.15. The model expects them to score more than Charleroi — 1.5 goals to one.

Their last five games show one loss — a 2:3 friendly against Rayo Vallecano — and four league victories, including a 3:1 away win at Kortrijk on 29 August. They score heavily late: 25% of their 40 goals come in the final 15 minutes, but 32% of the 37 they concede arrive in the same period. That makes them vulnerable when games open up.

Recent form: four wins and a 2:3 loss to Rayo Vallecano in their last five. They follow a similar pattern in attack — 34% of their 73 goals land in the closing quarter — but concede even more in that window at 36% of their 45 goals. Both sides tend to find space when tired.

In nine meetings since August 2024, Charleroi have won zero times, drawn twice, and lost seven. The most recent cup clash at home ended 0:0 in February 2026, but before that Union Saint-Gilloise won 4:1 away in the same competition.

The model expects them to score more than Charleroi — 1.5 goals to one. The most likely scoreline is 0:1 at 13%, followed by 1:1 at 12% and 0:2 at 10%. The draw probability sits at 26%, with both teams scoring at 47%. Three or more goals in the match are expected 44% of the time.

If Charleroi break through early, USG will likely drop deep, making a 1:0 or 2:1 home win the realistic outcome. Their late-game vulnerability is real — they concede 32% of their goals in the final 15 minutes — but if they break through early, Union Saint-Gilloise may sit deeper rather than chase. A 1:0 or 2:1 home win then becomes the most plausible outcome, and the 2.15 price on the visitors would no longer represent value.