Coal India vs NA Suruchi Sangha: match prediction on 3 September 2026

Coal India are the favourites to win this Calcutta Premier Division fixture, with the service pick placing confidence at 56%. The gap in the table tells the story plainly: 19 points from 10 matches for the hosts against 9 from 9 for the visitors. Coal India have won five games already this season, while NA Suruchi Sangha have managed only two. The hosts sit fifth, the visitors nineteenth. That is a difference of fourteen places and ten points, and it is reflected in how each side has played recently.

Home ground advantage

Coal India have played every one of their last five matches at home. They have won two, drawn twice and lost once, taking eight points from a possible fifteen. Their goal difference in that run is positive: nine scored, five conceded. The 5-2 victory over Wari on 14 August showed they can score freely, while the 2-0 win against Mohammedan SC on 28 August proved they can keep clean sheets against stronger opposition. The only defeat came against Calcutta Police, 0-1 on 30 July.

NA Suruchi Sangha's recent record offers little comfort. Of their last five matches, four were at home and one away. They won once, drew once and lost three times, collecting just four points. The 1-5 defeat at United on 31 August was the most telling result, exposing defensive frailties against a mid-table side. Their only win in that period came 3-0 against Kalighat Club on 9 August, a match against a team likely below them in the table.

When goals come and go

The timing of goals reveals vulnerabilities on both sides. Coal India score heavily late in matches: 47% of their 15 goals have come in the final 15 minutes. They also find the net 20% of the time between 31 and 45 minutes. Their defensive weakness is concentrated in one window: 100% of the eight goals they have conceded have arrived between 61 and 75 minutes. NA Suruchi Sangha share the late-game tendency, with 57% of their seven goals coming after 76 minutes. They concede most frequently between 61 and 75 minutes as well, accounting for 31% of the 16 goals they have let in.

The model expects Coal India to score 1.8 goals and NA Suruchi Sangha 1.1. The draw probability sits at 23%, while both teams to score is priced at 55%. Three or more goals in the match are expected 56% of the time. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 11%, 1-0 at 10% and 2-1 at 10%. These figures suggest a narrow home victory is the most probable outcome, though a draw remains a real possibility given the 23% probability.

This conclusion stops holding if NA Suruchi Sangha find a way to exploit Coal India's vulnerability between 61 and 75 minutes, or if the visitors score early enough to avoid the late-game pattern that has defined both sides. A draw would suit the visitors given how they tend to run the clock down in the closing stages, and that is the main threat to the home win prediction.