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Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
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Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: match prediction on 28 August 2026
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Prediction for
Win: Manchester City
53%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
19%
1
24%
X
57%
2
Average bookmaker line (49)
4.92
1
3.99
X
1.67
2
Odds range
1.55 — 1.75
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 17:03- Кристал Пэлас идёт 16-м: 0 очков после 1 матчей (0 побед, 0 ничьих, 1 поражений)
- Манчестер Сити идёт 8-м: 3 очков после 1 матчей (1 побед, 0 ничьих, 0 поражений)
- Последние 5 матчей Кристал Пэлас: 1 побед, 1 ничьих, 3 поражений
- Последние 5 матчей Манчестер Сити: 3 побед, 1 ничьих, 1 поражений
- Очные встречи за последние годы: сыграно 8, побед Кристал Пэлас — 1, ничьих 2, побед Манчестер Сити — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Crystal Palace
WWLWD
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Manchester City
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 13
2Crystal Palace
3Draw
8Manchester City
- 13 MayManchester City — Crystal Palace3:0
- 14 Dec 2025Crystal Palace — Manchester City0:3
- 17 May 2025Crystal Palace — Manchester City1:0
- 12 Apr 2025Manchester City — Crystal Palace5:2
- 7 Dec 2024Crystal Palace — Manchester City2:2
Bookmaker market
49
bookmakers counted
1.67
Average bookmaker line
1.55 — 1.75
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 17:03Manchester City to win at 1.67. They arrive with momentum after beating Bournemouth 2:1 in their opening Premier League fixture, while Crystal Palace lost 0:2 away to Everton. The model expects City to score 1.7 goals to Palace's 1, and the most likely outcome is a 0:1 victory for the visitors at 12% probability.
Form and momentum
Crystal Palace's recent record shows three defeats in five matches, including heavy losses to Freiburg 3:0 and Everton 2:0. They managed just one win against Al Ula 3:1 in the Como Cup. Manchester City collected 10 points from their last five games with three victories, though they did suffer a 3:0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal.
Head-to-head dominance
Manchester City have won five of eight recent meetings between these sides, with Crystal Palace taking just one victory in the FA Cup 1:0 in May 2025. The league encounters have been particularly one-sided: City won 3:0 at home in May 2026 and 3:0 at Selhurst Park in December 2025. They also won 5:2 at home in April 2025. Palace's only win came in a cup fixture, not in league competition.
Model and market alignment
The model projects Crystal Palace scoring 1 goal and Manchester City 1.7, giving City a clear advantage. The market agrees, with City priced at 1.67 across 49 bookmakers since opening. The line has barely moved, staying at 1.67 with only a 0.1% downward adjustment. The draw has drifted from 4.07 to 3.99, while Palace's odds have moved from 4.78 to 4.93, a 3.1% increase.
When the prediction fails
This conclusion stops working if Crystal Palace find an early breakthrough. They score 28% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window and 23% in the final 15 minutes, so a first-half lead would change the dynamic. City conceded 29% of their goals in the 16-30 minute period recently, making them vulnerable early. If Palace keep a clean sheet and score from a set piece, the 1:1 outcome at 12% probability becomes more likely than the away win.