Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Damac vs Al Ula: match prediction on 8 September 2026
Damac
Al Ula
Prediction for
Win: Damac
81%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
81%
1
13%
X
6%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 17:02- Дамак — 11. place, 3 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses)
- Аль-Ула — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Дамак, last 5 games: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses
- Аль-Ула, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Damac
LDDDL
3 draws · 2 losses
Al Ula
WWWWW
5 wins
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 6 Sep, 17:02Damac to win, with the model's 13% probability for a 2:0 scoreline as the anchor. Al Ula's perfect start masks a vulnerability in the closing stages, and Damac's late scoring mirrors it.
Late Fire
Damac have found their rhythm when the clock runs down. Twenty-five per cent of their 16 goals this season arrive in the final 15 minutes, while Al Ula have conceded 29 per cent of their 14 goals in the same window. The visitors hold every card early but sag when the match stretches. Damac's three draws this season all came 0:0 or 2:2 — they do not lose games they refuse to finish.
Al Ula's Edge
The leaders sit top with nine points from three matches. Their attack peaked in the 31-45 minute period, where 29 per cent of their goals landed. But that dominance has not translated to consistency — they dropped three points in their only defeat.
Damac's Wall
Three draws from three league games keeps Damac in 12th place with just three points. The 0:3 loss to Al Taawoun FC and 1:4 defeat to Al-Nassr stand out, but the draws against Al Wehda Club, Al Orubah and Al Saqer reveal a defensive resilience. They average 0.77 expected goals — less than half of Al Ula's output.
The Model's View
The simulation points to Damac 2.7 expected goals against Al Ula's 0.6, a reversal of form that rewards the visitors' late collapse. Three and more goals carry 63% probability, while both teams to score sits at 42%. The top three scorelines are 2:0 (13%), 3:0 (12%) and 1:0 (10%). A draw would break this pattern, but at 13% it is the least likely outcome.
When It Fails
Al Ula must close the game before the 75th minute. If they hold their lead through the final stretch, Damac's late surge loses its meaning. A first-half goal for the visitors changes the tactical balance entirely — they would no longer need to attack, and Damac's 25% final-quarter scoring rate becomes irrelevant. The model assumes Al Ula continue their pattern of conceding late; if that pattern breaks, the prediction does not hold.