Deportes Santa Cruz vs Recoleta: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Recoleta win

The visitors have won six of eight meetings between these sides and carry that momentum into Sunday's fixture. Their recent form is stronger too — three victories in five games compared to one for the hosts — and they sit twelve points clear in fifth place.

Deportes Santa Cruz have managed just five points from their last five matches, winning once and drawing twice. They lost 2-0 at home to San Luis FC and 1-0 away to Magallanes CF in that run, showing vulnerability both at home and on the road. Recoleta, by contrast, took ten points from the same period, including victories over San Marcos de Arica and Antofagasta. Their only loss in that span came in a Copa Chile match against O'Higgins.

The head-to-head record tells a clear story. Since 2023, Recoleta have won six of eight encounters, with two draws and zero victories for Deportes Santa Cruz. The most recent meeting on 9 May 2026 ended 1-0 to the visitors. Only twice in those eight matches has the scoreline been level, and those were 0-0 and 1-1 draws. Recoleta’s away record shows a 78% clean-sheet rate against lower-table sides.

The model expects 1.2 goals for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.0 for Recoleta, with a 29% chance of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 1-0, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. Both teams tend to concede heavily in the final quarter of matches — 34% of DSC's goals against come after the 76th minute, while 26% of Recoleta's do. That could keep things tight until late stages.

DSC’s high press forces 12 turnovers per game in the final third; sustain it past the 30th minute and the model shifts to 1.6–0.7.