ELJ
Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
50%
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Dobrudzha vs CSKA Sofia II: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Dobrudzha
CSKA Sofia II
Prediction for
Win: Dobrudzha
78%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
24%
1
26%
X
50%
2
Average bookmaker line (32)
3.68
1
3.50
X
1.79
2
Odds range
3.30 — 4.00
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:12- Добруджа — 17. place, 6 points after 9 games (1 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses)
- ЦСКА София II — 2. place, 17 points after 9 games (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Добруджа, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- ЦСКА София II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Добруджа — 2, ЦСКА София II — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Dobrudzha
LDLDL
2 draws · 3 losses
CSKA Sofia II
DLWLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 2
2Dobrudzha
0Draw
0CSKA Sofia II
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
32
bookmakers counted
3.68
Average bookmaker line
3.30 — 4.00
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:12Dobrudzha win at 3.68. The market prices this at 24%, our estimate sits at 78% — a 54-point gap where the line has not accounted for something.
Look at the table and you see a mismatch. CSKA Sofia II sit fourth with 17 points from five wins, two draws, two losses. Dobrudzha occupy seventeenth, six points from one win, three draws, five defeats. The form confirms it: Dobrudzha have not won in five — two draws, three losses, four goals scored, ten conceded. CSKA Sofia II have won twice in five, scored ten, conceded four.
Except the paper has two matches against these teams. On 28 July Dobrudzha beat CSKA Sofia II 4:0 at home. On 9 December they won 3:1 away. Two meetings, two victories for Dobrudzha. The model expects 2.4 goals for the home side and 0.6 for the visitors. The three most likely scorelines are 2:0 at 14%, 1:0 at 11%, and 3:0 at 11%. The draw probability sits at 15%.
But the timing data tells a different story about how these games actually unfold. Dobrudzha concede 32% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and 26% between the 61st and 75th. CSKA Sofia II score 29% of their goals after the 75th minute and 24% between the 61st and 75th.
The line has barely moved. Home win opened at 3.80 and sits at 3.68 now, a 3.3% swing. Away win stayed flat at 1.79. We rate the outcome at 78%.
Conditions under which this conclusion fails:
The market is underrating this outcome by 54 points. There is nothing to take at that price if you believe the bookmakers know something we do not. But they have not moved. They have not adjusted for the head-to-head. They have not adjusted for the model. We see a home win. 78%. That is the estimate. It is not a promise.