Cup
Spartak Myjava
Galanta
Prediction for Spartak Myjava — Galanta
75%
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Drogheda United vs Dundalk: match prediction on 28 August 2026
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Prediction for
Win: Dundalk
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
29%
1
27%
X
44%
2
Average bookmaker line (48)
3.17
1
3.35
X
2.11
2
Odds range
2.00 — 2.38
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:03- Средняя линия 48 букмекеров: победа Дандолк 2.16, победа Дрохеда Юнайтед 3.04, ничья 3.38
- Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 2.05 до 2.38 (16%)
- Дрохеда Юнайтед — 9. place, 28 points after 28 games (6 wins, 10 draws, 12 losses)
- Дандолк — 4. place, 37 points after 28 games (9 wins, 10 draws, 9 losses)
- Дрохеда Юнайтед, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
- Дандолк, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 14 games, Дрохеда Юнайтед — 3, 5 draws, Дандолк — 6
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Drogheda United
DWLLL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Dundalk
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 21
6Drogheda United
5Draw
10Dundalk
- 10 JulDundalk — Drogheda United1:2
- 22 MayDrogheda United — Dundalk1:1
- 20 FebDundalk — Drogheda United1:1
- 1 Nov 2024Drogheda United — Dundalk0:0
- 19 Jul 2024Drogheda United — Dundalk2:1
Bookmaker market
48
bookmakers counted
2.11
Average bookmaker line
2.00 — 2.38
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:03I recommend a draw in this fixture. The market has shifted toward Dundalk but the model and recent patterns suggest a tight encounter where neither side will take risks.
Drogheda United have collected 6 points from their last 5 matches, while Dundalk managed 5. Both sides are in similar form pockets — not terrible, not brilliant. Drogheda's results show 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, with goals at 5:4. Dundalk's tally reads 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, with a more volatile 13:7 goal ratio. The FAI Cup match against Castlebar Celtic inflated Dundalk's attacking numbers, while their league defeats to Shamrock Rovers and Galway United reveal vulnerability against organised sides.
Dundalk sit 4th with 37 points from 28 games, while Drogheda are 9th on 28 points. That 9-point gap suggests Dundalk should be favourites, yet the betting market moved against them. Dundalk odds dropped from 2.16 to 2.12 over 5 hours, while Drogheda's price climbed from 3.03 to 3.17. Money came in for the home side, but the model expects 1.4 goals for Drogheda and 1.3 for Dundalk — a near-even spread that contradicts the market's tilt.
14 meetings have occurred with 3 wins for Drogheda, 5 draws, and 6 for Dundalk. The most recent fixture ended 2:1 to Drogheda on 10 July, breaking a pattern of draws between these sides. Before that result, three consecutive meetings produced 1:1, 1:1, and 0:0. Drogheda's recent win may have given them confidence, but Dundalk's superior league position remains the bigger factor.
Drogheda score 50% of their goals in the first 15 minutes but struggle between 46:00 and 60:00 with zero goals. They concede 30% of their goals between 61:00 and 75:00, a period where Dundalk have scored 12% of theirs. Dundalk attack strongest in the final 15 minutes with 36% of their goals, while Drogheda's defensive vulnerability in the middle third could prove significant if the match remains tight.
The model's most likely score is 1:1 at 12%, followed by 1:0 and 2:1 at 9% each. Draw probability sits at 25%, with both teams scoring at 56%. I'm backing a draw here, but this prediction fails if Dundalk find an early goal — their 36% scoring rate in the final 15 minutes suggests they're dangerous late, while Drogheda's first-half intensity could prove decisive if they strike quickly.