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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Prediction for
Win: Džiugas Telšiai
42%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
45%
1
28%
X
27%
2
Average bookmaker line (47)
2.02
1
3.21
X
3.31
2
Odds range
1.91 — 2.15
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:49- Джюгас — 6. place, 37 points after 25 games (10 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses)
- Хегельманн Литавен — 7. place, 23 points after 25 games (4 wins, 11 draws, 10 losses)
- Джюгас, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Хегельманн Литавен, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 19 games, Джюгас — 2, 4 draws, Хегельманн Литавен — 13
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Džiugas Telšiai
WLLDL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Hegelmann Litauen
LLDDL
2 draws · 3 losses
Head to head 27
4Džiugas Telšiai
7Draw
16Hegelmann Litauen
- 17 JunHegelmann Litauen — Džiugas Telšiai1:1
- 1 MayDžiugas Telšiai — Hegelmann Litauen3:0
- 28 FebHegelmann Litauen — Džiugas Telšiai1:1
- 24 JanHegelmann Litauen — Džiugas Telšiai2:0
- 23 Oct 2025Hegelmann Litauen — Džiugas Telšiai4:1
Bookmaker market
47
bookmakers counted
2.02
Average bookmaker line
1.91 — 2.15
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:49Džiugas Telšiai are set to draw with Hegelmann Litauen. The model gives a 27% probability for a draw. Both sides carry similar recent form, Hegelmann's historical dominance has softened in the last encounter, and the expected goals suggest a tight contest.
Recent form
Džiugas picked up 4 points from their last 5 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats. Hegelmann collected exactly the same haul—1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses. Džiugas lost 0:2 away to Zalgiris and 0:2 at home to Sūduva, then bounced back with a 4:3 victory over Šiauliai. Hegelmann drew 1:1 with Banga at home before losing 0:2 away to Kauno Žalgiris.
League positions
Džiugas sit on 37 points after 25 matches, Hegelmann on 23. Džiugas have won 10, drawn 7, lost 8. Hegelmann have managed 4 wins and 11 draws.
Hegelmann's past dominance fades
Across 19 meetings, Hegelmann have won 13, Džiugas 2, with 4 draws. But the most recent A Lyga encounter ended 1:1 at Hegelmann's ground. Before that, Džiugas won 3:0 at home in May.
Disciplinary concerns
Valentino Vermeulen carries 3 red cards in the last six months and sits one booking away from a ban risk. D. Bunchukov received a red card on 23.08.2026. Hegelmann's D. Slendzoka has 4 yellow cards and is one booking from suspension.
Model points to 1:1
The expected goals model gives Džiugas 1.3 goals and Hegelmann 1.1. The draw sits at 27%, the highest single outcome. Both teams to score comes in at 49%, and there is a 44% chance of 3 or more goals. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, followed by 1:0 at 12% and 0:1 at 10%. These figures suggest a tight, possibly goalless first half, with both sides cautious. Džiugas score 42% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, Hegelmann 29% in the first half. If the match stays level through 75 minutes, Džiugas could spring a surprise.
When the draw breaks down
The prediction stops holding if Hegelmann impose their historical dominance or if Džiugas' disciplinary issues result in a red card. A quick goal from either side would change the dynamic. If Hegelmann attack from the outset, or if Džiugas sit deep, the outcome shifts.