Elva vs Tallinna Kalev: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Elva are the side to back at 2.86, and the reason is straightforward: they have pulled away from Tallinna Kalev in the league table, while the visitors have hit a wall. The model puts both sides on 1.7 expected goals, and the 25% draw probability does not outweigh the gap in momentum. A win for Elva is the most likely outcome.

Tallinna Kalev, by contrast, have gathered just 2 points from the same period, losing three times and drawing twice. They were held 2:2 by Flora II at home, but that was their best result in a run that includes a 5:0 defeat away at Flora II and a 3:1 loss to Maardu.

The head-to-head record complicates things. Kalev have won three of the last five meetings, including a 1:0 victory at home in August and a 2:1 win in April. Elva won 3:1 at home in May, but the visitors have taken the upper hand in the majority of recent encounters. Kalev’s five-match winless run breaks that pattern.

Both sides show a tendency to be dangerous late in games. Elva score 25% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and concede 26% in the same period. Kalev are even more pronounced in that pattern, with 35% of their goals coming after the 76th minute and 23% of their goals conceded in the same window. That shared characteristic points toward a match that could open up as the clock runs down, and it gives the home side a chance to capitalise if they are level at full time.

The 67% probability that both teams score aligns with the late-game patterns and the defensive vulnerabilities both sides have shown. Elva's home advantage and superior recent form make them the logical choice, but the conclusion stops holding if the match ends in a draw, which suits Kalev's approach of running the clock down and surviving the final minutes.