Enisey vs Arsenal Tula: match prediction on 16 September 2026

Enisey are tipped to win at 55% confidence. The hosts have won three of the last six meetings, including a 1:0 success in May, and they carry the advantage of playing at home while their opponents face a managerial transition.

Enisey sit 14th in the table with 10 points from 10 matches, having failed to win in their last five games. They have recorded three draws and two defeats, scoring four goals and conceding eight. Arsenal Tula occupy 10th place with 13 points from 11 fixtures, but they have also lost three of their previous five outings, scoring four goals and conceding nine.

A new era begins

Arsenal Tula face Dmitri Alenitschew’s first match in charge after he replaced Dmitri Gunko on Tuesday. The appointment follows a cup exit against Tekstilshchik, and the new manager must stabilise a side that has dropped points in four of their last five league games. No team news has been reported for Enisey ahead of the fixture.

The model favours a 1:0 or 1:1 draw (13% each), with a goalless stalemate at 10%. Expected goals stand at 1.4 for Enisey and 1.0 for Arsenal Tula. Enisey are vulnerable in the 46th to 60th minute, where they concede 38% of their total goals, while Arsenal Tula have been most potent between the 61st and 75th minute, accounting for 28% of their strikes.

A home win depends on Enisey maintaining their defensive structure during the second half. If Arsenal Tula capitalise on the early stages of the period or if the new manager instils immediate urgency, the 27% probability of a draw could materialise, undermining the home edge.