Fajr Sepasi vs ZOB Ahan: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Fajr Sepasi to win. The hosts have not lost in three league matches and carry a slight edge in expected goals, while ZOB Ahan arrive without their suspended defender A. Ghaderi.

The hosts come into this fixture unbeaten in the league, collecting 5 points from 3 matches with a record of one win and two draws. Their last five outings show a similar pattern: two victories, two draws, and one loss. They opened their campaign with a 1:0 home win over Shams Azar Qazvin before drawing 1:1 away at Kheybar Khorramabad. The most recent result was a 1:0 victory on the road against Malavan Bandar Anzali on 24 August. ZOB Ahan, meanwhile, have managed just 2 points from their opening three games. Their last five matches tell a starker story: no wins, two draws, and three defeats. They drew 1:1 at home against Mes Shahr-e Babak on 24 August but had already lost away at Malavan 1:2 and at home to Foolad FC 0:0.

The head-to-head record this season is evenly matched. ZOB Ahan won 2:1 at home on 2 February, while Fajr Sepasi responded with a 1:0 victory at their own ground on 19 September 2025. Four meetings since January 2022 have produced two wins for each side. The most recent encounter at ZOB Ahan's stadium ended with the hosts taking all three points, but the reverse fixture at Fajr Sepasi's ground saw the home side prevail.

League position adds context to the match dynamics. Fajr Sepasi sit eighth with 5 points, a mid-table standing with no immediate pressure. ZOB Ahan occupy thirteenth place with just 2 points, and relegation concerns are beginning to surface. The visitors have conceded 6 goals in their last five matches while scoring only 3, a ratio that reflects defensive vulnerability. Discipline records over recent matches show ZOB Ahan averaging 0.67 red cards per match compared to Fajr Sepasi's zero, and the absence of A. Ghaderi following his red card on 24 August weakens their back line further.

The model expects Fajr Sepasi to score 1 goal and ZOB Ahan 0.7, with a 33% probability of a draw and 32% for both teams scoring. The most likely scorelines are 1:0 at 18%, 0:0 also at 18%, and 1:1 at 13%. Three or more goals carry a 25% probability. These figures align with Fajr Sepasi's recent defensive solidity—they have kept clean sheets in two of their last five matches—and ZOB Ahan's inability to convert chances, having failed to win any of their last five outings.

A draw suits the visitors given their tendency to run the clock down when behind, and that remains the main threat to a home victory. If the match becomes open and goals flow, the model's expectation of fewer than two goals for Fajr Sepasi could prove conservative.