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Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor Ii: match prediction on 8 October 2026
Gazalkent
Pakhtakor Ii
Prediction for
Win: Gazalkent
70%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
70%
1
21%
X
9%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 14:05- Газалкент — 6. place, 32 points after 20 games (9 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses)
- Пахтакор II — 13. place, 10 points after 20 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 16 losses)
- Газалкент, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Пахтакор II, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Газалкент — 1, Пахтакор II — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Gazalkent
LDDWW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Pakhtakor Ii
LWLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 1
1Gazalkent
0Draw
0Pakhtakor Ii
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 7 Oct, 14:05Gazalkent to win. Confidence 72%.
The hosts carry a 22-point cushion over their visitors and have been the stronger side in every metric measured. Pakhtakor Ii sit 13th with just 10 points from 20 matches, having lost 16 of them. Gazalkent, positioned sixth with 32 points, have taken 8 points from their last five games — two wins, two draws, one defeat — and scored 7 goals while conceding only 4 in that span. The gap between them is not just numerical; it shows in how they play.
Pressure sits on the visitors
Pakhtakor Ii have won once in five outings and failed to keep a clean sheet in their last four matches. They lost 0-4 at home to Shortan on 21 September, then went on three consecutive defeats away from home, conceding 5 goals without reply. Their defensive frailty is most pronounced in the final quarter of an hour: 50% of all goals they have conceded this season have arrived between the 76th and 90th minute. Gazalkent, meanwhile, have found their greatest attacking window in the same period, with 17% of their goals coming in those final 15 minutes.
The pattern holds
The sides met once this season, on 30 May 2026, when Gazalkent won 2-1 away in Pakhtakor Ii's stadium. Since then, the form gap has widened. Gazalkent have scored most heavily between the 61st and 75th minute (31% of their total) and in the 46-60 block (24%). Pakhtakor II have been most dangerous early, with 15% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and another 15% between 61-75, but their overall output — 13 goals in 20 matches — tells a different story.
The model expects Gazalkent to score 2.7 goals and Pakhtakor Ii 0.7. The draw probability sits at 15%, while the chance of three or more goals in total is 65%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%) and 1-0 (9%)..
When the prediction fails
This conclusion rests on Gazalkent maintaining their late-game dominance. If Pakhtakor Ii manage to close out results early — scoring in the opening 15 minutes and then parking the bus — the match could drift into a stalemate. A draw would suit the visitors, given how they run the clock down in the final stages. That is the main threat to the home win.