Hebar 1918 vs Fratria: match prediction on 1 September 2026

Fratria to win. The visitors are top of the table with 13 points after six matches, unbeaten in five outings, while Hebar 1918 sit 12th with just 7 points. The model puts Fratria's expected goals at 1.7 to Hebar's 1.3, and the head-to-head record shows Fratria have won both meetings this year, 3:2 away and 1:3 at home.

Fratria have taken 13 points from their last five games, winning four and drawing once. They kept clean sheets in three of those five matches, conceding just two goals across the run. The only blemish came away at Vihren where they drew 2:2, but they have won at home against CSKA Sofia II and Beroe, and won away at Lokomotiv Gorna Orjachovitsa and Rilski Sportist Samokov.

Hebar 1918 are more mixed. Their last five produced two wins, one draw and two losses, yielding 7 points with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. They beat Chernomorets 1:0 at home and won 3:2 away at Pirin Blagoevgrad, but lost 4:3 away at CSKA Sofia II and 3:2 at home to Vihren.

The history between these sides cuts one way. Fratria won both matches in 2025, 3:2 at home and 1:3 away. Hebar have not beaten Fratria in any of their recent encounters, and the visitors have scored five goals in those two games while Hebar managed three. The pattern suggests Fratria find a way to break through, even when playing away from home.

The model points to a tight match with room for goals. Both teams to score comes in at 60%, and three or more goals at 58%. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 11%, followed by 1:2 at 9% and 0:1 at 8%. Fratria's attack has been sharper, averaging 6.7 shots on target compared to Hebar's 4.9, and they have scored 21 goals to Hebar's 22 across similar periods. Hebar score heavily in the 31-45 and 46-60 minute windows, but Fratria are also strong in the first half, accounting for 29% of their goals in that period.

A draw suits Hebar more than the result I am proposing. They have shown they can grind out points at home, and if Fratria sit deep after taking an early lead, the visitors could run the clock down rather than push for a second goal. That scenario would turn the match into a stalemate, and the 24% draw probability becomes the outcome rather than the away win.

I see no grounds to back Hebar. They are six points behind Fratria in the table and have lost more games than they have won. The visitors are unbeaten in five and have beaten Hebar twice already this season. The model's expected goals favour Fratria, and the shot accuracy data backs that up.