Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian: match prediction on 3 September 2026
Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
Prediction for
Win: Heart of Midlothian
38%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
37%
1
28%
X
35%
2
Average bookmaker line (49)
2.47
1
3.33
X
2.67
2
Odds range
2.50 — 2.88
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 20:04- Хибирниан — 5. place, 6 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Харт оф Мидлотиан — 3. place, 6 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Хибирниан, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Харт оф Мидлотиан, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 14 games, Хибирниан — 4, 4 draws, Харт оф Мидлотиан — 6
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Hibernian
DLWLL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Heart of Midlothian
DWWWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 20
4Hibernian
7Draw
9Heart of Midlothian
- 26 AprHibernian — Heart of Midlothian1:2
- 10 FebHeart of Midlothian — Hibernian1:0
- 27 Dec 2025Hibernian — Heart of Midlothian3:2
- 4 Oct 2025Heart of Midlothian — Hibernian1:0
- 2 Mar 2025Hibernian — Heart of Midlothian2:1
Bookmaker market
49
bookmakers counted
2.67
Average bookmaker line
2.50 — 2.88
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 20:04Home side favourite but derby offers no guarantees
The margin is razor-thin — the market has barely shifted from opening prices, and Hearts have not lost in five matches, going three draws and two wins without a defeat. This is not a straightforward favourite situation; it is a tight local rivalry where momentum matters more than league position.
Form tells two different stories
Hibernian have collected 8 points from their last five games, winning twice and drawing twice, but that 2:3 defeat to Gent at Easter Road on 27 August exposed defensive vulnerability. Hearts sit unbeaten in five, with three draws and two victories, including a 6:2 League Cup demolition of Inverness CT. The visitors have not tasted defeat since August, and their defensive record has been tighter — they conceded just 7 goals across those five matches compared to Hibernian's 4, though the latter also scored 5.
Derby history cuts both ways
Hearts have won 6 of 14 meetings, Hibernian 4, with 4 draws. Hibernian did beat Hearts 3:2 at home in December 2025, but Hearts responded with 1:0 wins at Tynecastle in February and October. The pattern suggests Hearts have had the upper hand recently, but home advantage in derbies often flattens historical trends.
Where the game will be decided
Hibernian score heavily in the opening 15 minutes (31% of their goals) and again after 76 minutes (26%), but they concede 39% of their goals in the final quarter of an hour. Hearts are dangerous late too, with 41% of their goals coming after 76 minutes, but they also leak 29% of their goals between 46 and 60 minutes. The model expects 1.2 goals for Hibernian and 1.3 for Hearts, with a 27% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, followed by 0:1 and 1:0 both at 10%.
When the prediction breaks
Changa Miguel Chaiwa is one booking away from suspension for Hibernian — if he picks up a yellow, the defence loses a key piece. A draw suits the visitors given how they run the clock down, and with Hearts not having lost in five matches, a stalemate is the main threat to this home win. If the match goes to 60 minutes level, Hearts' tendency to concede in that period could swing it, but their defensive discipline has been solid since August.