Karcag SE vs Videoton FC: match prediction on 30 August 2026

A draw looks likely, with 65% confidence. The model gives Karcag 1.2 expected goals, Videoton 1.3, and the draw probability sits at 28% — but the real story is Karcag's stubbornness. They have not lost in five matches, collecting 7 points from 1 win and 4 draws. Videoton, by contrast, have lost 3 of their last 5 and sit 9th with 6 points.

Karcag's defensive resilience

Karcag's recent record shows a tight defence: 10 goals scored, 7 conceded across 5 games. They drew 3:3 at home against Tiszakecske FC on 16 August and 2:2 against Soroksar two weeks earlier. Before that came 1:1 away at Ajka and 0:0 away at Szentlőrinc. The only win came 4:1 away at BVSC on 22 August. Their expected goals of 1.2 reflect this cautious approach — most simulations end with one or two goals for the hosts.

Videoton's inconsistency

Videoton have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 in their last 5 matches, but the pattern is jagged. They lost 1:2 at home to Mezőkövesd-Zsóry on 22 August and 1:2 away to Kecskeméti TE a week later. Their wins came 1:0 at home against Szeged 2011 and 4:0 at home against Kozármisleny FC on 25 July. Their expected goals of 1.3 suggest they can outscore Karcag marginally, but consistency is not their strength.

Timing matters

Karcag score 35% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and concede 25% in the 76-90 minute window. Videoton concede 46% of their goals in that same period but score 0% of theirs. The model's most likely scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, followed by 0:1 at 11% and 1:0 at 10%. The 28% draw probability fits Videoton's late collapses and Karcag's ability to hold positions.

Head-to-head context

Two matches have been played between these sides in recent years. Videoton won 2:0 at home on 8 March 2026. Karcag responded with a 1:0 win at home on 31 August 2025. The pattern suggests home advantage carries weight, and Videoton's away record of 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in their last 5 games makes another visit difficult.

Prediction caveats

A draw suits Videoton — they have nothing to lose and can run the clock down. If they manage to score first and protect that lead, the 28% probability shifts in their favour. Videoton have disciplinary concerns: K. Kollo was sent off twice on 15 August, B. Murka has a red card, and D. Nagi is one booking away from a ban. If any of these players are unavailable, the balance tilts further toward Karcag.