Kongsvinger IL vs Lyn: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Kongsvinger IL to win, confidence 68%.

The gap that matters

Kongsvinger sit second with 42 points after 19 matches, a tally built on 13 victories, 3 draws and just 3 defeats. Lyn occupy 10th place with 23 points from 7 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses. That 19-point margin tells you everything about where these sides stand in the pecking order. Kongsvinger have not lost at home since 2 August, when they fell 1-3 to Strommen in a First Division clash.

Lyn's late surge

Lyn's recent form looks impressive on paper. Four wins and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 8. They beat Åsane 2-1 away on 26 August, then dispatched SF Grei 4-0 in the NM Cupen two days later. Their 5-1 demolition of ODD Ballklubb at home on 15 August was their most eye-catching result.

Kongsvinger's control

The head-to-head record leaves little doubt. Kongsvinger have won three of the last four competitive meetings, with one draw. Their most recent visit to Lyn's ground ended 0-3 on 16 May, and the return fixture at their own stadium saw them edge through 2-1 on 24 May. They have not lost a competitive match here since November 2024. Their attacking patterns show they are most dangerous between 46 and 60 minutes, when 36% of their goals arrive, and the final 15 minutes account for another 26%.

What the numbers say

The model expects Kongsvinger to score 2.4 goals and Lyn 1.4, with a 19% chance of a draw and 68% probability both teams find the net. The most likely outcome is 2-1 at 9%, followed by 1-1 and 3-1 on 7% each. Kongsvinger's top scorers R. Christiansen and A. Chamintha have both netted 6 goals in the last six months, while Lyn's A. Hellum leads with 8. V. Fors for Kongsvinger sits one booking away from suspension, but that is a risk for the future, not today.

Where this goes wrong

A draw suits the visitors, and given how they have been running matches lately, that is the main threat. If they take an early lead and adopt a defensive posture, Kongsvinger's tendency to concede 24% of their goals between 31 and 45 minutes could work against them. The confidence figure drops if Lyn avoid conceding in the first 60 minutes and exploit the spaces behind Kongsvinger's full-backs.