Legion vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win. The visitors carry a 4:1 advantage from the first meeting and sit 25 points clear of Legion in the table — that gap translates into a 68% confidence that the away side takes all three points on 30 August. The prediction changes if Legion score first and hold a lead into the final 15 minutes, when the model's expected goals for the home side (2.1) suggest they become more dangerous.

Legion have taken only 4 points from their last 5 matches, a run that includes three defeats and leaves them rooted in 10th place with 12 points from 24 games. They lost 0:1 away to Levadia U19 on 24 August and drew 3:3 against Tallinna Kalev II two days later. Their only victory in that span came 1:0 away to Johvi Phoenix on 1 August, while a 1:2 cup defeat to Saku Sporting on 26 July marks a difficult period.

Vaprus U21 sit 7th with 37 points from 25 matches and have collected 5 points from their last 5 outings. They suffered a 0:6 hammering away to JK Tabasalu on 24 August and drew 2:2 at home to Tulevik on 20 August. A 1:0 home win over Tartu Kalev on 15 August and a 2:2 draw away to Luunja on 10 August precede a 2:3 home loss to Levadia U19 on 3 August. They have won only once in that sequence.

The two sides met twice this season. Legion lost 1:4 at home on 22 June and drew 1:1 away on 19 April. Vaprus U21 have never lost to Legion in these meetings.

The model expects Legion to score 2.1 goals and Vaprus U21 to score 2.8. The draw probability is 18%, both teams to score at 82%, and 3 or more goals at 86%. The three most likely scorelines are 2:2 (7%), 1:2 (6%), and 2:3 (6%). Legion score 38% of their goals between 61 and 75 minutes and 25% in the final quarter, while Vaprus U21 register 39% of their goals in the same 61–75 window.

Legion concede 24% of their goals between 46 and 60 minutes and another 24% between 61 and 75. Vaprus U21 concede 30% in the 16–30 period and 30% in the 76–90 stretch. Neither side has players one booking away from suspension, and no red cards have been recorded in the last 3 weeks for either team.

The visitors have scored through 7 different players this season, with K. Kutsar leading on 6 goals. Legion's attack has been supplied by N. Grankin with 3 goals, M. Kolodchuk with 2, and S. Nosach with 1.

The pressure on the home side is visible in their record — 18 losses from 24 matches. Vaprus U21 have more to play for in terms of positioning, though they are not in a relegation battle.

Both teams to score at 82% aligns with the attacking intent expected from a side fighting for survival against one that has shown vulnerability in defence. Legion's tendency to score late could prove decisive if the match remains tight.

The outcome stands unless Legion find a way to control the game in the opening 45 minutes. Vaprus U21 have conceded 10% of their goals in that period, but they also score 28% of theirs. If the visitors come out too aggressively and open space, the home side's late surge could turn the result. A draw suits the visitors specifically because it allows them to protect their lead and run the clock down, which is the main threat to the prediction.