Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Legion vs Tartu Kalev: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Legion
Tartu Kalev
Prediction for
Win: Tartu Kalev
66%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
12%
1
16%
X
71%
2
Average bookmaker line (23)
7.19
1
5.52
X
1.25
2
Odds range
1.21 — 1.29
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 15:46- Легион — 10. place, 12 points after 26 games (3 wins, 3 draws, 20 losses)
- Тарту Калев — 6. place, 41 points after 27 games (13 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses)
- Легион, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Тарту Калев, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Легион — 2, Тарту Калев — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Legion
DLLLL
1 draw · 4 losses
Tartu Kalev
WDWLW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 12
2Legion
0Draw
10Tartu Kalev
- 12 JulTartu Kalev — Legion10:2
- 24 MayLegion — Tartu Kalev0:6
- 11 AprTartu Kalev — Legion1:0
- 1 Nov 2025Tartu Kalev — Legion4:3
- 2 Aug 2025Legion — Tartu Kalev0:1
Bookmaker market
23
bookmakers counted
1.25
Average bookmaker line
1.21 — 1.29
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 15:46Tartu Kalev to win at 1.25, confidence 65%. The gap between the sides is not merely numerical — it is structural. Legion sit 10th with 12 points from 26 matches and have not won in five games, while Tartu Kalev hold 41 points after 27 outings and have taken seven from their last five.
Legion's recent run reads like a collapse. Four defeats and one draw in five outings, scoring five and conceding fifteen. The 0:3 away to Tulevik on 05.09 was the latest in a sequence that began with a 1:5 home defeat to Parnu JK Vaprus U21. They have not kept a clean sheet since 21.08 and have lost four of their last five by at least one goal margin.
Tartu Kalev are steadier, though not flawless. Two wins, one draw, two losses gives them seven points from five, but the results are mixed. They lost 0:1 at home to Narva U21 on 06.09 and 0:1 away to Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on 15.08, yet beat Johvi Phoenix 3:0 and Luunja 2:1 in between. They sit sixth, 29 points clear of Legion with one match fewer played.
The head-to-head record is decisive. Tartu Kalev won all six meetings over the past year, with Legion scoring seven goals and conceding 23. The most recent encounter on 12.07.2026 ended 10:2 in Tartu's favour. Before that, Legion lost 0:6 at home on 24.05.2026 and 0:1 away on 02.08.2025. The pattern is consistent.
The model expects 1.4 goals for Legion and 2.7 for Tartu Kalev. A 1:2 scoreline carries 8% probability, as does 1:3, while 0:2 sits at 6%. The draw probability is 17%, both teams to score 70%, and three or more goals 78%. Tartu's attack is most active in the final quarter of an hour, where they score 30% of their goals, while Legion concede 20% in the same period.
The prediction fails if Legion find a way to keep the game scoreless for 75 minutes and force a late equaliser. A draw suits them — it would be their first point in five games — and if they sit deep and run the clock down, the 17% chance becomes real. A red card for either side would also upend the calculation, though neither team has confirmed suspensions from earlier bookings.