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Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma: match prediction on 13 September 2026
Lobos Upnfm
Atlético Choloma
Prediction for
Win: Lobos Upnfm
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
25%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 11 Sep, 22:13- Лобос УПНФМ — 12. place, 2 points after 6 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)
- Атлетико Чолома — 9. place, 4 points after 6 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses)
- Лобос УПНФМ, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Атлетико Чолома, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 4 games, Лобос УПНФМ — 0, 2 draws, Атлетико Чолома — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Lobos Upnfm
LLLWW
2 wins · 3 losses
Atlético Choloma
WLDLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 4
0Lobos Upnfm
2Draw
2Atlético Choloma
- 21 MarLobos Upnfm — Atlético Choloma1:2
- 29 JanAtlético Choloma — Lobos Upnfm1:1
- 15 Oct 2025Atlético Choloma — Lobos Upnfm5:1
- 4 Aug 2025Lobos Upnfm — Atlético Choloma2:2
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 11 Sep, 22:13The result ended a sequence in which Lobos Upnfm had failed to win any of their previous five league fixtures, taking only 2 points from those games. A pre-match model had predicted 1.6 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.2 for Atletico Choloma, with a 25% chance of a draw. The service pick was for a Lobos UPNFM victory with 47% confidence.
Lobos Upnfm sat in 12th place, unbeaten in none of their six matches, with 2 draws and 4 losses. Atletico Choloma held 9th place after securing 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses. The visitors had won 2 of the 4 meetings recorded over recent years, while Lobos UPNFM had 0 victories in those fixtures.
Over the last 10 matches, Lobos Upnfm averaged 50% possession and 3.6 shots on target, while Atletico Choloma averaged 51% possession and 4.8 shots on target. Lobos UPNFM had conceded 37 goals across their seasonal record, compared with 23 scored, while Atletico Choloma had scored 25 and conceded 34.
Lobos Upnfm scored 39% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, while Atletico Choloma scored 32% in the first half (31–45 minutes). In terms of goals conceded, Lobos UPNFM conceded 22% in the 16–30 minute window, whereas Atletico Choloma conceded 29% in the 31–45 minute window.
Lobos Upnfm averaged 2.2 yellow cards per match over the last 10 games, with 0.1 red cards. Atletico Choloma averaged 3.0 yellow cards and 0 red cards. E. Lopez of Lobos UPNFM carried 5 yellow cards, one booking away from a suspension, while J. Castillo and H. Franco of Atletico Choloma held 4 yellow cards each.
K. Pena led Lobos Upnfm with 5 goals over the last 6 months, followed by D. Carter with 2. Marco Tulio Aceituno Mejía topped Atletico Choloma’s list with 6 goals, while A. Villatoro and J. Chavez each had 2.
The last encounter on 21 March 2026 ended 1–2 to Atletico Choloma. On 29 January 2026 they drew 1–1. Atletico Choloma had won 5–1 at home in October 2025, and the teams had shared points 2–2 in August 2025 at Lobos Upnfm’s ground.