Mes Soongoun vs Mes Kerman: match prediction on 28 September 2026

A draw at 2.60 has an edge

There is 45% confidence in a draw at 2.60. The market prices this outcome at 34%, and that 11-point gap is where the bet lives. The line has not moved since it opened — 2.60 at 00:00 on 28 September, 2.60 at 06:00.

Both sides sit level on the table. Mes Kerman are 13th, Mes Soongoun 15th, and each carries one point from two matches. The record is identical: no wins, one draw, one defeat. This is not a fixture where one team arrives with momentum. It is a pairing of sides that have both stumbled in their opening round and steadied in the second.

The head-to-head runs six matches back. The most recent meeting, 15 February 2026, finished 0:0 at Mes Kerman's ground. Before that, 23 September 2025, Mes Soongoun took a 1:0 away win. The pattern is tight — these sides do not blow each other away. They trade narrow margins and often settle for a point.

The model puts expected goals at 0.6 for each side. That is not a prediction of a single scoreline; it is an average across many simulated versions of the match. The most frequent outcome in those simulations is 0:0, appearing 31% of the time. A 1:0 result follows at 17%, and 0:1 at 16%. The draw probability sits at 45%. Both teams to score lands at 22%, and three or more goals in the match at 12%. The numbers point to a cagey contest.

There is a turn of events that breaks this conclusion. If Mes Soongoun go behind early, they have shown a tendency to score heavily in the final 15 minutes — 67% of their goals in the last period of the match. That pattern could push them to attack and open the game. A draw suits neither side if one side is forced to chase, and it is the main threat to the prediction.

The edge is there, but it is small. A draw is the outcome, and the conditions under which it fails are clear.