ELJ
Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
50%
Read more
Montana vs Hebar 1918: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Montana
Hebar 1918
Prediction for
Win: Montana
80%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
49%
1
26%
X
25%
2
Average bookmaker line (31)
1.83
1
3.41
X
3.63
2
Odds range
1.80 — 1.88
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:32- Монтана — 14. place, 11 points after 9 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)
- Хебар 1918 — 13. place, 11 points after 9 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses)
- Монтана, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Хебар 1918, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Montana
WDLLL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Hebar 1918
DDLWW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 2
1Montana
0Draw
1Hebar 1918
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
31
bookmakers counted
1.83
Average bookmaker line
1.80 — 1.88
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 17:32The market has Montana at 1.83 for a home win, and the bookmakers' implied probability sits at 49%. My estimate is 80%. That is a 31-point gap in our favour, and it does not come from a wild guess — it comes from what the line has not priced in.
A six-pointer where both sides need points
Montana and Hebar 1918 are level on 11 points after nine matches, separated only by position — 14th and 13th. The records are identical: three wins, two draws, four losses. A win here moves Montana off the bottom of the table and puts pressure on Hebar to find results elsewhere. Neither side can afford a defeat, but the home advantage matters in a league where away form is thin.
Recent results tell different stories
Montana's last five matches brought one win, one draw, and three losses — four points from a possible 15, with five goals scored and ten conceded. The 4-0 defeat away to CSKA Sofia II and the 4-1 home loss to Vihren stand out. Hebar 1918 have been sharper: two wins, two draws, one defeat in their last five, eight points and a 9:6 goal difference. The 4-1 home victory over Etar Veliko Tarnovo shows they can outscore opponents, but the 3-2 loss at Spartak Pleven reveals vulnerability when games open up.
Montana won the last meeting away
The most recent head-to-head was in March 2022, when Montana won 3-0 at Hebar's ground. Before that, in August 2021, Montana lost 1-0 at home. The visitors have taken the psychological edge from the more recent encounter, and the away win suggests they know how to break this side down.
The market is sleeping
The odds have not moved since opening on 20 September. Montana at 1.83, draw at 3.41, Hebar at 3.63 — identical across four snapshots. The market is pricing this as a tight game, but the model expects Montana to score 2.5 goals and Hebar 0.6. The draw probability sits at 14%, both teams to score at 39%, and three or more goals at 59%. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (15%), 3-0 (12%), and 1-0 (12%).
When the prediction breaks
A draw suits Hebar — if they sit deep and manage the clock, the points split is a fair result. A quick goal against Montana would shift the game entirely, and if the visitors score first, the home side is forced to chase. That is the main threat to this conclusion.