Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: match prediction on 30 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
Prediction for
Win: Philadelphia Union
44%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
32%
1
24%
X
44%
2
Average bookmaker line (48)
2.90
1
3.89
X
2.12
2
Odds range
1.85 — 2.22
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:29- Средняя линия 47 букмекеров: победа Филадельфия Юнайтед 2.12, победа Нью-Йорк Ред Буллз 2.89, ничья 3.87
- Конторы расходятся в оценке: от 1.91 до 2.25 (18%)
- Нью-Йорк Ред Буллз — 8. place, 26 points after 21 games (7 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses)
- Филадельфия Юнайтед — 13. place, 21 points after 21 games (5 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses)
- Нью-Йорк Ред Буллз, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Филадельфия Юнайтед, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 10 games, Нью-Йорк Ред Буллз — 1, 2 draws, Филадельфия Юнайтед — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
New York Red Bulls
LDLDL
2 draws · 3 losses
Philadelphia Union
DDWWW
3 wins · 2 draws
Head to head 17
1New York Red Bulls
5Draw
11Philadelphia Union
- 23 JulPhiladelphia Union — New York Red Bulls3:1
- 17 Aug 2025New York Red Bulls — Philadelphia Union1:0
- 14 Aug 2025Philadelphia Union — New York Red Bulls3:2
- 13 Jul 2025Philadelphia Union — New York Red Bulls2:0
- 1 Sep 2024New York Red Bulls — Philadelphia Union0:2
Bookmaker market
48
bookmakers counted
2.12
Average bookmaker line
1.85 — 2.22
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:29Philadelphia Union are the clear favourites to win here, priced at 2.12 across 47 bookmakers. The market has placed 44% on the visitors, compared with 32% for New York Red Bulls and 24% for a draw. This assessment rests on two facts: Philadelphia have won seven of the last ten meetings between these sides, and they are in far better recent form, collecting eight points from their last five matches against four for the hosts.
Head-to-head record
The visitors have dominated this fixture. In ten matches over recent years, Philadelphia won seven, drew twice, and lost once. The most recent encounter ended 3:1 to the Union at their own ground on 22 July 2026. New York's only home victory in that span came 1:0 on 16 August 2025, and the last time these sides met at this venue, Philadelphia scored three goals in a 3:2 US Open Cup win on 14 August 2025.
Table position suggests Philadelphia have more to play for, though not necessarily motivation to attack. They sit 13th with 21 points from 21 matches, five behind the hosts who occupy eighth place with 26 points. Neither side is fighting for anything tangible, which may explain why Philadelphia have been content to see out games rather than chase results.
Recent form
Philadelphia's last five matches brought two wins, two draws, and one defeat. They drew 1:1 away at Austin on 23 August, then produced a 2:2 home draw against Inter Miami before a 3:2 away victory over New York City FC on 16 August. New York managed just one win in five, beating Orlando City 3:2 on 1 August, while drawing 1:1 with Chicago Fire and losing at home to Nashville SC and Charlotte. Their goal difference in that run is 5:8.
The model expects both sides to score, with a 64% probability, and projects 1.6 expected goals for each team. Three likely scorelines emerge: 1:1 at 10%, 1:2 at 8%, and 2:1 at 8%. The draw probability sits at 23%, while 63% of simulations produce three or more goals.
A draw suits Philadelphia — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat to this conclusion. New York score heavily in the opening 15 minutes (24% of their goals) and again in the final 15 (24%), while Philadelphia have been vulnerable early, conceding 27% of their goals between 16 and 30 minutes. If the hosts can exploit that window and go ahead quickly, the visitors may struggle to find their rhythm.