Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Nõmme Kalju II vs Nõmme United II: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme United II
Prediction for
Win: Nõmme Kalju II
41%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
33%
1
22%
X
45%
2
Average bookmaker line (17)
2.74
1
4.18
X
2.02
2
Odds range
2.63 — 2.80
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 15:32- Нымме Калю II — 10. place, 22 points after 29 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 19 losses)
- Нымме Юнайтед II — 8. place, 33 points after 29 games (9 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses)
- Нымме Калю II, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Нымме Юнайтед II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Нымме Калю II — 2, Нымме Юнайтед II — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Nõmme Kalju II
WLLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Nõmme United II
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 3
2Nõmme Kalju II
0Draw
1Nõmme United II
- 17 AugNõmme United II — Nõmme Kalju II2:0
- 15 JunNõmme Kalju II — Nõmme United II4:1
- 24 AprNõmme United II — Nõmme Kalju II0:3
Bookmaker market
17
bookmakers counted
2.74
Average bookmaker line
2.63 — 2.80
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 15:32United II Favourites Despite Tight Odds
Nõmme United II enter as slight favourites at 2.02, a figure that has moved up just 0.6% since the line opened on 20 September. The market across 17 bookmakers sees this as a tight contest, with the home side at 2.73 and a draw priced at 4.18. United II are the more likely winners, though the margin is narrow. The model puts a draw at 22%, leaving the outcome wide open.
The table tells a clear story. Nõmme United II sit eighth with 33 points from 29 matches, while Nõmme Kalju II languish in tenth with 22 points. That nine-point gap has opened up as the season has run its course. Kalju II have lost 19 of their 29 games, United II only 14. The gap in results separates them.
Recent form favours the hosts too. United II have picked up 6 points from their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 defeats. Kalju II managed just 3 points from the same period, winning once and losing four times. The most recent meeting between them on 17 August ended 2:0 to United II, another result that suggests the visitors have the edge.
Looking further back, Kalju II have actually won 2 of the 3 previous encounters, including a 4:1 victory at home in June. But that earlier dominance has not carried through to the present. United II's 2:0 win in August came after Kalju II had already shown signs of struggle, losing 1:5 at home to Flora II just two days before.
The model expects 1.8 goals for Kalju II and 1.7 for United II, with likely scorelines of 1:1 (9%), 2:1 (8%) and 1:2 (8%). Both teams tend to find the net — the probability of both scoring is 68%. Kalju II have been particularly vulnerable in the final quarter, conceding 22% of their goals between 76 and 90 minutes. United II have scored 31% of theirs in that same period.
This conclusion stops holding if Kalju II can replicate their earlier form against United II. If they can impose themselves early — they score 35% of their goals between 16 and 30 minutes — and avoid the late collapses that have cost them so many points, this match could swing their way. A draw also suits Kalju II's situation, and at 4.18 that is not a price to ignore.