North Texas SC vs Houston Dynamo II: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Expected goals and late-game vulnerability point to a 2-1 home win. The model gives the home side a slight edge in expected goals (1.8 to 1.6), and both teams have shown a habit of conceding late — 59% of North Texas SC's goals against have fallen after the 75th minute, 51% of Houston's. That pattern, combined with the home advantage, points to a narrow victory.

Houston Dynamo II sit 51 points from 26 matches, North Texas SC SC 38 points from the same number. Yet the last five games paint a similar picture: one win each, with draws and losses filling the gaps. North Texas collected 6 points from 13, Houston 5 from 15. The gap in the standings has not translated into a gap in momentum.

On 10 September Houston won 3-2 at this ground. In the broader head-to-head record across 12 matches over recent years, Houston have 7 wins to North Texas SC's 3, with 2 draws. The visitors have held the upper hand, but the last encounter was tight and the margin was slim. That result alone does not guarantee a repeat, especially when both sides are showing signs of fatigue in the final quarter. North Texas score 61% of their goals after the 75th minute and concede 59% in the same period. Houston concede 51% late and score 42% late. Both teams are vulnerable when the game opens up, and both are dangerous in the closing stages. The model's figures reflect this: 67% probability that both teams score, 66% that three or more goals fall. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, followed by 2-1 and 1-2 on 8% each.

Absences could shift the balance. T. Ospina for North Texas SC carries one booking away from a suspension, while Houston's N. Betancur and D. Barrett both have red cards on their record in the last six months.

The data does not support a comfortable victory for either side, only a tight contest decided in the final minutes.